4 ms·
There is definite community spread in India. They are not saying the truth either to stop panic or because they have not tested or because they are misinformed
by smdz 7y ago
There is definite community spread in India. They are not saying the truth either to stop panic or because they have not tested or because they are misinformed (less likely)
I am not sure why he said "no signs", because now the data available publicly proves that there is community spread.
I do not mean to create panic - but I have strong reasons to correlate that the community spread cases that turned into severe respiratory problems started appearing on March 15, 2020. Based on contact tracing, the patients very likely contracted the virus between March3-March5. This was a likely time of the initial community spread and in fact super spread via weddings.
Another timeline possibility is that the community spread started sometime in the last 5-10 days of February. It was also a time when many people were getting cough, cold and respiratory diseases because of a seasonal change. The OPDs were very busy and probably few of the patients were international travelers carrying Covid-19. In the first week of March, there were many cases where patients were seeing weird and elongated respiratory problems that normally do not occur seasonally. However, many of these cases in OPDs also reduced by the second week of March. The first lockdown address from the PM was on March 20.
A better way to confirm is to see whether there is a spike in cases (and severe cases) by March 31 - even after the lockdown