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The US federal government has dug the graves of a million Americans by not doing the same already. Reality has a terrible way of smacking you in the face whethe

The US federal government has dug the graves of a million Americans by not doing the same already. Reality has a terrible way of smacking you in the face whether you accept it or not.

Amygaz 7y ago
It's too early to say that. But if they do lift it next week like Trump is trumpeting, then it will.
- zabana 7y ago
  Yes, the doomer narrative is getting old very quickly. Everyone and their mothers are running formulas in Excel to try and prove that in 50 days 3.4783 billion people will be wiped out if you go out to buy groceries. Let the experts do their work, take your precautions and everything will be fine.
  - newen 7y ago
    You are forgetting that the people deciding the fate of this country is Trump and his billionaire cronies? I don't know how you can put your faith in "experts" anymore when the experts are controlled by these people.
    - zabana 7y ago
      What's the alternative ? Mass hysteria ? Hoarding of basic necessities ? It's like people feed off of this apocalyptic porn atmosphere, very disturbing. It's been weeks now that people have been throwing the same line: "well wait and see in two weeks". According to official stats, there are 17k deaths worldwide at the time of writing for 450k confirmed cases, assuming the number of cases grows exponentially, the death rate will eventually be much lower than what people are projecting.
      - CaptArmchair 7y ago
        That's a reflection of how wide / narrow is being tested by those who entered health care systems. It's extremely hard to accurately extrapolate that to a global population. The million dollar question here is how many cases go unnoticed. How many deaths go unnoticed. Nobody really knows. Nobody knows how mortality is going to evolve either, since nobody knows how well health care systems around the world will be able to cope. Collapsing health care systems will yield a different outcome then those that do cope. And we don't know how they will cope. So, I'm not accepting either "a few ten thousands" or "multiple millions" of deaths predictions at face value. The right answer is the very uncertain "we do not know". What is clear is that people die from this, that no one is immune, and that a confusing response of authorities that aren't able to rally together doesn't really spark confidence.
        hiram112 7y ago
        > The million dollar question here is how many cases go unnoticed. How many deaths go unnoticed. Nobody really knows. Few deaths are going unnoticed. Even without this virus, there are cases every year in the US of isolated seniors dying at home because they were unable or unwilling to seek help. But it is trivial. As far as actual cases of CV, can't we assume that the highest possible accurate infection rates would be coming from the countries with the best testing - those who are testing randomly or even those who aren't sick. And even in those countries, we're not seeing a death rate any higher than a normal flu season, apparently. In the US, we're only testing those who show up at the hospital and are already sick. Our infected rate is missing out on all those people who don't need hospital care or don't even realize they already had and recovered from the virus. So most countries have, in fact, a much smaller death rate than what is being published. If anything, the math here is telling us that we're overreacting, and the only question is by how much.
        CaptArmchair 7y ago
        Those are valid points. But we don't know if the samples we have are representative. Either because of their size, or their composition. Extrapolating the results from one context into a different context - different parameters (i.e. hospital capacity, treatment, prevention, local culture,...) - also yields a skewed view. Even experts don't know how ugly it's going to get: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/infectious-disease-experts-dont-know-how-bad-the-coronavirus-is-going-to-get-either/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/infectious-disease-expe... So, I don't want to make any guesses about exact death rates. That's just a number. What we do know is that a substantial number of people who get sick will need intensive care. How bad things will get depends on how well health care and social security systems will be able to cope; and how the other domino's - companies, taxpayers,... - will cope with that reality.
  - CaptArmchair 7y ago
    Meanwhile in Spain... Madrid has converted its largest ice rink into a morgue: https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-03-24/madrid-starts-using-ice-rink-as-morgue-for-coronavirus-victims.html https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-03-24/madrid-starts-... Staff are leaving senior homes and their inhabitants to their own devices. Soldiers have found deserted senior homes with bodies of victims: https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-03-24/spanish-prosecutors-launch-investigation-after-bodies-found-inside-senior-homes.html https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-03-24/spanish-prosec... Arguably, the planet isn't going to get wiped out. This isn't Hollywood. But rapidly mounting deaths, strained or collapsing health care systems and widespread fear will make these type of stories inevitably more prevalent in many countries in the next couple of weeks. "everything will be fine" sounds nice. But it's crystal clear that it won't be fine for many. The vast majority isn't going to die, but many will lose family members, friends, jobs, their current way of living,... And that's just horrible in itself.
verify_sirrah 7y ago
The general government has no right to perform such actions. State governments do and have done so where they think it makes sense. Also, making statements like millions of Americans will die is causing more harm than good. The country with the highest per capita infections in San Marino with 553 infections/100K pop [1]. San Marino is a small city state. Switzerland has the highest per capita cases of "real" countries and is still 5x lower at 107/100k pop. Since the United States is a much larger country with a much lower population density, the infection rate of San Marino likely wouldn't translate. However, even if we do so that would give a total number of cases in the US of 1.8 million. That means there wouldn't even but millions infected let alone dead. [1] https://direkte.vg.no/coronaviruset/news/5e63e839d2df520011e2751d https://direkte.vg.no/coronaviruset/news/5e63e839d2df520011e...
rhino369 7y ago
Nationwide lockdowns don't really work unless you are trying to totally contain it, which is likely impossible in the US, Europe, and India. Each metro area and state should lock-down when they think they are going to get near their max ICU capacity (of course taking into account that hospital load lags by 2-3 weeks). It doesn't do any good to lock down a city that doesn't have any community spread yet. It's just pure economic pain without any benefit.
- sweezyjeezy 7y ago
  You are talking with certainty about things which are completely unprecedented right now. The fact is you don't know for what is and isn't possible, and you don't know what should be done - nobody really does.
- wool_gather 7y ago
  There's no way to know that there is community spread without comprehensive testing. In order to stop transmission, infected people need to be quarantined. If you have no idea which individuals are infected...the (incredibly painful, yes) alternative is everyone.

The US federal government has dug the graves of a million Americans by not doing the same already. Reality has a terrible way of smacking you in the face whether you accept it or not.

Amygaz 7y ago

It's too early to say that. But if they do lift it next week like Trump is trumpeting, then it will.

zabana 7y ago
Yes, the doomer narrative is getting old very quickly. Everyone and their mothers are running formulas in Excel to try and prove that in 50 days 3.4783 billion people will be wiped out if you go out to buy groceries. Let the experts do their work, take your precautions and everything will be fine.
- newen 7y ago
  You are forgetting that the people deciding the fate of this country is Trump and his billionaire cronies? I don't know how you can put your faith in "experts" anymore when the experts are controlled by these people.
  - zabana 7y ago
    What's the alternative ? Mass hysteria ? Hoarding of basic necessities ? It's like people feed off of this apocalyptic porn atmosphere, very disturbing. It's been weeks now that people have been throwing the same line: "well wait and see in two weeks". According to official stats, there are 17k deaths worldwide at the time of writing for 450k confirmed cases, assuming the number of cases grows exponentially, the death rate will eventually be much lower than what people are projecting.
    - CaptArmchair 7y ago
      That's a reflection of how wide / narrow is being tested by those who entered health care systems. It's extremely hard to accurately extrapolate that to a global population. The million dollar question here is how many cases go unnoticed. How many deaths go unnoticed. Nobody really knows. Nobody knows how mortality is going to evolve either, since nobody knows how well health care systems around the world will be able to cope. Collapsing health care systems will yield a different outcome then those that do cope. And we don't know how they will cope. So, I'm not accepting either "a few ten thousands" or "multiple millions" of deaths predictions at face value. The right answer is the very uncertain "we do not know". What is clear is that people die from this, that no one is immune, and that a confusing response of authorities that aren't able to rally together doesn't really spark confidence.
      - hiram112 7y ago
        > The million dollar question here is how many cases go unnoticed. How many deaths go unnoticed. Nobody really knows. Few deaths are going unnoticed. Even without this virus, there are cases every year in the US of isolated seniors dying at home because they were unable or unwilling to seek help. But it is trivial. As far as actual cases of CV, can't we assume that the highest possible accurate infection rates would be coming from the countries with the best testing - those who are testing randomly or even those who aren't sick. And even in those countries, we're not seeing a death rate any higher than a normal flu season, apparently. In the US, we're only testing those who show up at the hospital and are already sick. Our infected rate is missing out on all those people who don't need hospital care or don't even realize they already had and recovered from the virus. So most countries have, in fact, a much smaller death rate than what is being published. If anything, the math here is telling us that we're overreacting, and the only question is by how much.
        CaptArmchair 7y ago
        Those are valid points. But we don't know if the samples we have are representative. Either because of their size, or their composition. Extrapolating the results from one context into a different context - different parameters (i.e. hospital capacity, treatment, prevention, local culture,...) - also yields a skewed view. Even experts don't know how ugly it's going to get: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/infectious-disease-experts-dont-know-how-bad-the-coronavirus-is-going-to-get-either/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/infectious-disease-expe... So, I don't want to make any guesses about exact death rates. That's just a number. What we do know is that a substantial number of people who get sick will need intensive care. How bad things will get depends on how well health care and social security systems will be able to cope; and how the other domino's - companies, taxpayers,... - will cope with that reality.
- CaptArmchair 7y ago
  Meanwhile in Spain... Madrid has converted its largest ice rink into a morgue: https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-03-24/madrid-starts-using-ice-rink-as-morgue-for-coronavirus-victims.html https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-03-24/madrid-starts-... Staff are leaving senior homes and their inhabitants to their own devices. Soldiers have found deserted senior homes with bodies of victims: https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-03-24/spanish-prosecutors-launch-investigation-after-bodies-found-inside-senior-homes.html https://english.elpais.com/society/2020-03-24/spanish-prosec... Arguably, the planet isn't going to get wiped out. This isn't Hollywood. But rapidly mounting deaths, strained or collapsing health care systems and widespread fear will make these type of stories inevitably more prevalent in many countries in the next couple of weeks. "everything will be fine" sounds nice. But it's crystal clear that it won't be fine for many. The vast majority isn't going to die, but many will lose family members, friends, jobs, their current way of living,... And that's just horrible in itself.

verify_sirrah 7y ago

The general government has no right to perform such actions. State governments do and have done so where they think it makes sense. Also, making statements like millions of Americans will die is causing more harm than good. The country with the highest per capita infections in San Marino with 553 infections/100K pop [1]. San Marino is a small city state. Switzerland has the highest per capita cases of "real" countries and is still 5x lower at 107/100k pop. Since the United States is a much larger country with a much lower population density, the infection rate of San Marino likely wouldn't translate. However, even if we do so that would give a total number of cases in the US of 1.8 million. That means there wouldn't even but millions infected let alone dead. [1] https://direkte.vg.no/coronaviruset/news/5e63e839d2df520011e2751d https://direkte.vg.no/coronaviruset/news/5e63e839d2df520011e...

rhino369 7y ago

Nationwide lockdowns don't really work unless you are trying to totally contain it, which is likely impossible in the US, Europe, and India. Each metro area and state should lock-down when they think they are going to get near their max ICU capacity (of course taking into account that hospital load lags by 2-3 weeks). It doesn't do any good to lock down a city that doesn't have any community spread yet. It's just pure economic pain without any benefit.

sweezyjeezy 7y ago
You are talking with certainty about things which are completely unprecedented right now. The fact is you don't know for what is and isn't possible, and you don't know what should be done - nobody really does.
wool_gather 7y ago
There's no way to know that there is community spread without comprehensive testing. In order to stop transmission, infected people need to be quarantined. If you have no idea which individuals are infected...the (incredibly painful, yes) alternative is everyone.