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If we don’t have a plan for what to do when quarantine ends, we’re just kicking the can down the road. So... what’s going to be different about our response i

If we don’t have a plan for what to do when quarantine ends, we’re just kicking the can down the road. So... what’s going to be different about our response in April or May or when people come out of quarantine? Or are we just hoping it goes away? Personally I think allowing the young and healthy to interact makes sense. They generally don’t need hospitalization and they can start to develop antibodies and our heard immunity.

JumpCrisscross 7y ago
> we’re just kicking the can down the road Google "flatten the curve" [1]. The point of a quarantine isn't to stop the infection. It's to slow it down so it doesn't overwhelm healthcare infrastructure. Given India's population and ICU capacity, a fast spread could kill tens of millions. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/science/coronavirus-curve-mitigation-infection.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/science/coronavirus-curve...
- lbeltrame 7y ago
  > The point of a quarantine isn't to stop the infection. It's to slow it down so it doesn't overwhelm healthcare infrastructure. The question raised on quarantines, more than their efficacy, is IMO the duration in time: weeks, months, years? There are also side effects, and not only economical, that emerge from keeping people shut in for long times.
- nostromo 7y ago
  I should have anticipated this response as it’s become as much of a meme as has “it’s just a flu.” We’re flattening the curve too much here in Seattle. There are 100 new cases identified each day. So we’ve flattened the curve to last... 60 years of quarantine. We need to curve the curve. But instead they announced more restrictions.
  - JumpCrisscross 7y ago
    > There is 100 new cases identified each day Out of those tested. A minuscule fraction of the population is being tested. Case count is massively undrepresecnts the current infected and thus future near-morbid. The evidence for this is in the increasing case count even among the sample being tested. China is getting back to normal life after a seemingly-effective program of quarantine and testing. Korea and Taiwan look similar. Refusing to quarantine early enough, long enough and resolutely enough leaves us looking like Italy. Far more damaging and chaotic for the economy and civic society.
    - nostromo 7y ago
      Actually testing has gone up exponentially in Seattle. But we’re still finding a flat line of infections. Which suggests it’s slowed dramatically. That sounds like good news, but we’re seemingly past containment, so it does seem like we’re kicking the can down the road.
      - JumpCrisscross 7y ago
        > testing has gone up exponentially in Seattle Still an immaterial fraction of the population being tested. > we’re seemingly past containment Containment has failed. Doing nothing after containment is a good way to decimate one's population and cause it lasting economic harm.
  - marnett 7y ago
    It is remarkable how quickly the arguments bifurcate around any subject matter now-a-days. The solution needs to be a balance of public health policy and economic policy. The layoffs will only get worse now through Q2; perhaps the zeitgeist will shift when SV and tech is impacted more severely.
  - phaemon 7y ago
    So you think the number of cases in Washington will hold around 100 cases a day over the next few weeks?
- yibg 7y ago
  But given Indians population and ICU capacity wouldn’t flattening the curve sufficiently take years of ongoing sustained effort? I don’t see how that can be sustainable.
  - JumpCrisscross 7y ago
    > given Indians population and ICU capacity wouldn’t flattening the curve sufficiently take years of ongoing sustained effort? Indians will die due to lack of medical care. We're too far down the road, and New Delhi has done far too little, to prevent that. The choice now is in the magnitude of deaths. Keep in mind that while the curve is being flattened, capacity can be increased. This is why every country is manufacturing as many ventilators and ICU materiel as possible. This supposed tradeoff between near-term economic gains and long-term decimation is a false one. If tens of millions of Indians are dying, it's going to wreck the economy. Moreover, it will do so in a more-lasting way than a quarantine (and the accompanying healthcare industrial ramp-up) would do.
  - harias 7y ago
    They only need to flatten it until a vaccine is ready
jacquesm 7y ago
It would really help if you read at least a little bit into the matter so that we don't have repeat the same arguments over and over again. But, once again: the idea is to manage the spread in such a way that ICU capacity is not overwhelmed. In April or May or whenever we come 'out of quarantaine' it will not go back to what it was before right away, slowly more and more people will be allowed to go back to the way things were and for sure the 'young and the healthy' will be first in line there. But young and healthy, not young or healthy, and even those that don't need hospitalization can still spread it so if someone young and healthy gets infected then right back to quarantine with them until they are healthy once more, with still a chance of them ending up in the hospital. That virus doesn't actually care about whether you are young, it just has an easier time attacking people that have weaker immune systems, and once overwhelmed your age no longer matters. Finally, since asymptomatic spreading is a thing even those that are young and infected can spread the virus to older and immunocompromised people. So you still have to be careful and avoid contact with the rest of the population until you are 100% sure (two negative tests seems to be the gold standard right now) that you are no longer shedding.
- nostromo 7y ago
  This is not the plan for any state in quarantine. It likely will become the plan. But states are still shooting for containment, when most epidemiologists think that ship sailed long ago.
  - zzzcpan 7y ago
    Right, at this point only some countries do "flatten the curve", for the rest it's an attempt of containment and once they see it failing they will try to figure out what to do and how to reopen everything while trying to prevent the spread.

JumpCrisscross 7y ago

> we’re just kicking the can down the road Google "flatten the curve" [1]. The point of a quarantine isn't to stop the infection. It's to slow it down so it doesn't overwhelm healthcare infrastructure. Given India's population and ICU capacity, a fast spread could kill tens of millions. [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/science/coronavirus-curve-mitigation-infection.html https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/11/science/coronavirus-curve...

lbeltrame 7y ago
> The point of a quarantine isn't to stop the infection. It's to slow it down so it doesn't overwhelm healthcare infrastructure. The question raised on quarantines, more than their efficacy, is IMO the duration in time: weeks, months, years? There are also side effects, and not only economical, that emerge from keeping people shut in for long times.
nostromo 7y ago
I should have anticipated this response as it’s become as much of a meme as has “it’s just a flu.” We’re flattening the curve too much here in Seattle. There are 100 new cases identified each day. So we’ve flattened the curve to last... 60 years of quarantine. We need to curve the curve. But instead they announced more restrictions.
- JumpCrisscross 7y ago
  > There is 100 new cases identified each day Out of those tested. A minuscule fraction of the population is being tested. Case count is massively undrepresecnts the current infected and thus future near-morbid. The evidence for this is in the increasing case count even among the sample being tested. China is getting back to normal life after a seemingly-effective program of quarantine and testing. Korea and Taiwan look similar. Refusing to quarantine early enough, long enough and resolutely enough leaves us looking like Italy. Far more damaging and chaotic for the economy and civic society.
  - nostromo 7y ago
    Actually testing has gone up exponentially in Seattle. But we’re still finding a flat line of infections. Which suggests it’s slowed dramatically. That sounds like good news, but we’re seemingly past containment, so it does seem like we’re kicking the can down the road.
    - JumpCrisscross 7y ago
      > testing has gone up exponentially in Seattle Still an immaterial fraction of the population being tested. > we’re seemingly past containment Containment has failed. Doing nothing after containment is a good way to decimate one's population and cause it lasting economic harm.
- marnett 7y ago
  It is remarkable how quickly the arguments bifurcate around any subject matter now-a-days. The solution needs to be a balance of public health policy and economic policy. The layoffs will only get worse now through Q2; perhaps the zeitgeist will shift when SV and tech is impacted more severely.
- phaemon 7y ago
  So you think the number of cases in Washington will hold around 100 cases a day over the next few weeks?
yibg 7y ago
But given Indians population and ICU capacity wouldn’t flattening the curve sufficiently take years of ongoing sustained effort? I don’t see how that can be sustainable.
- JumpCrisscross 7y ago
  > given Indians population and ICU capacity wouldn’t flattening the curve sufficiently take years of ongoing sustained effort? Indians will die due to lack of medical care. We're too far down the road, and New Delhi has done far too little, to prevent that. The choice now is in the magnitude of deaths. Keep in mind that while the curve is being flattened, capacity can be increased. This is why every country is manufacturing as many ventilators and ICU materiel as possible. This supposed tradeoff between near-term economic gains and long-term decimation is a false one. If tens of millions of Indians are dying, it's going to wreck the economy. Moreover, it will do so in a more-lasting way than a quarantine (and the accompanying healthcare industrial ramp-up) would do.
- harias 7y ago
  They only need to flatten it until a vaccine is ready

jacquesm 7y ago

It would really help if you read at least a little bit into the matter so that we don't have repeat the same arguments over and over again. But, once again: the idea is to manage the spread in such a way that ICU capacity is not overwhelmed. In April or May or whenever we come 'out of quarantaine' it will not go back to what it was before right away, slowly more and more people will be allowed to go back to the way things were and for sure the 'young and the healthy' will be first in line there. But young and healthy, not young or healthy, and even those that don't need hospitalization can still spread it so if someone young and healthy gets infected then right back to quarantine with them until they are healthy once more, with still a chance of them ending up in the hospital. That virus doesn't actually care about whether you are young, it just has an easier time attacking people that have weaker immune systems, and once overwhelmed your age no longer matters. Finally, since asymptomatic spreading is a thing even those that are young and infected can spread the virus to older and immunocompromised people. So you still have to be careful and avoid contact with the rest of the population until you are 100% sure (two negative tests seems to be the gold standard right now) that you are no longer shedding.

nostromo 7y ago
This is not the plan for any state in quarantine. It likely will become the plan. But states are still shooting for containment, when most epidemiologists think that ship sailed long ago.
- zzzcpan 7y ago
  Right, at this point only some countries do "flatten the curve", for the rest it's an attempt of containment and once they see it failing they will try to figure out what to do and how to reopen everything while trying to prevent the spread.