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There are too many things that may or may not have some kind of effect. Adding to the brainstorming list: taking your shoes off at home, showering in the evenin

There are too many things that may or may not have some kind of effect. Adding to the brainstorming list: taking your shoes off at home, showering in the evening vs. in the morning. BTW I don't think people wash their hands more in Japan, but who knows. There definitely are places within Japan that have more cases despite having a lower population density. Okinawa (south) has very few cases, while Hokkaido (north) has a lot of cases. That seems to support the hypothesis that climate plays a major role.

jariel 7y ago
Yes, literally showing at night might make a difference. So many things: maybe they regularly clean the handles on doors. Maybe the restaurants always use a disinfectant wipe. Maybe people 'stay at home' more regularly if they are sick. There's a really powerful EpiCurve calculator someone at OpenAI published - and the most interesting thing is how sensitive everything is to R0. R0 1.8 v. 2.2 is just a huge difference. If 'social distancing' brings it down some, but then 'showing at night' nudges it a little bit lower, voila, noticeably less spread. It's going to take a very keen measure of variables, in fact, it's going to take a keen observation of culture to even figure out what those variables are. Sadly, I don't have faith we'll ever get there.