3 ms·
What's interesting is that none of the answers seem definitive. 1) 'Mask wearing' - we know even cloth masks will help reduce spread, but not by what factor ov
by jariel 7y ago
What's interesting is that none of the answers seem definitive.
1) 'Mask wearing' - we know even cloth masks will help reduce spread, but not by what factor overall. We don't know the real vectors here.
2) Someone mentioned 'hygiene' - do the Japanese really wash their hands every time they enter the house? Or do they 'rinse their food' i.e. maybe package handling is a big vector.
3) 'Early border closing' - it only takes a handful of cases to cause the spread. Nobody has been able to 'keep it out' this way.
4) Some cynical commenters indicated it's due to low testing and governments wanton to 'keep the numbers down' which is hard to buy because the truth would hit hard when hospitals start to fill up.
5) Timing. Taking strong measures early may have made all the difference. If you can truly keep the numbers small, it becomes more manageable on a case by case basis.
Or all of the above.
I hope we are able to isolate the real transmission vectors that affect R0, but we may never really know.
- qiqitori 7y agoThere are too many things that may or may not have some kind of effect. Adding to the brainstorming list: taking your shoes off at home, showering in the evening vs. in the morning. BTW I don't think people wash their hands more in Japan, but who knows. There definitely are places within Japan that have more cases despite having a lower population density. Okinawa (south) has very few cases, while Hokkaido (north) has a lot of cases. That seems to support the hypothesis that climate plays a major role.
- jariel 7y agoYes, literally showing at night might make a difference. So many things: maybe they regularly clean the handles on doors. Maybe the restaurants always use a disinfectant wipe. Maybe people 'stay at home' more regularly if they are sick. There's a really powerful EpiCurve calculator someone at OpenAI published - and the most interesting thing is how sensitive everything is to R0. R0 1.8 v. 2.2 is just a huge difference. If 'social distancing' brings it down some, but then 'showing at night' nudges it a little bit lower, voila, noticeably less spread. It's going to take a very keen measure of variables, in fact, it's going to take a keen observation of culture to even figure out what those variables are. Sadly, I don't have faith we'll ever get there.
- freetime2 7y agoSome other possible factors I have considered beyond the above are: Effective local government response (contact tracing and closures) when a case is detected. Japan does seem to do a good job at disaster preparation and response generally. Possibly some climate-related advantage. Japan has a fairly humid climate and the Tokyo area is starting to see some warmer weather now.