> Ioannidis says: “If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my D

> Ioannidis says: “If we assume that case fatality rate among individuals infected by SARS-CoV-2 is 0.3% in the general population — a mid-range guess from my Diamond Princess analysis — and that 1% of the U.S. population gets infected (about 3.3 million people), this would translate to about 10,000 deaths.” For anyone wondering, this quote is from [1] and doesn't appear in the linked article. I think the linked article is better worded and more nuanced. > I think John has good reason to desire evidence based decisions, but sometimes you have to make decisions without enough data and change your game as it develops e.g. look at what effective entrepreneurs do in uncertain times? I think comparing the measures that governments take with what effective entrepreneurs do is misleading for two reasons. First, for a country there is no single bottom line: a good balance has to be found between low mortality, good quality of life for those that do not die, and economy (which can be tied into the latter, or it can be independent if the government prioritises the wealth of a minority). Success of a company is mostly measured financially, or perhaps by visibility. And second, the stakes are a lot higher for governments. They cannot fail and disappear if the measures are not a success. If they fail, human consequences are massive, but the country still exists. If entrepreneurs fail, the company might go into bankruptcy and disappear, but the impact is mostly financial. On the one hand this means that the risks can be acceptable if the consequences are only financial, and on the other hand this leads to a certain selection bias -- the successful entrepreneurs you see are ones that take risks and act decisively, and were lucky enough that their risks paid off. 1. https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/ https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-a...