3 ms·
Okay, it's been in development for 10 years? 20% per year, then. Done. A 200% return over 10 years is a CAGR of 11.61%, just a hair lower than what you'd get
by pmiller2 7y ago
Okay, it's been in development for 10 years? 20% per year, then. Done. A 200% return over 10 years is a CAGR of 11.61%, just a hair lower than what you'd get dumping it all into an S&P 500 index fund on 2010-01-01 and cashing out 2019-12-31, plus you get to put "saved millions of lives" on your resume. Totally fair.
You don't think the US government can afford $80 ($40x2, because you should run 2 tests for confirmation) to test every resident of the country? Google tells me there are 327.2M people in the US. $80/person is only $26 billion. How much are we spending again on useless foreign wars that nobody questions? How much did the Fed spend in a failed effort to stabilize the market a couple weeks ago?
You also forgot, this test returns results in 45 minutes, whereas the other version takes hours. Reducing the time to result by an order of magnitude means you can test an order of magnitude more people. You said it right here: "... it requires a much lower degree of operator skill and capital equipment. But because it requires less operator skill and less capital equipment, it can be closer to patients, especially in remote areas."
So, what do you want, $26 billion in the US treasury, or every single human inside the US borders to be tested for coronavirus? Granted, that testing will not happen instantaneously, but it will happen far, far faster with this technology deployed at scale than not. And, I don't see Cephid moving to put 10 of these in every hospital in the country yet. Do you?
Let me put it to you another way: do you want to go the way South Korea has, or the way Italy has?
- mlyle 7y agoI want to use the machines that are built for high volume testing, and not try to ramp up production of a cost-inefficient cartridge thing for the bulk of testing that we could never get enough tests from in a reasonable time. (Takes a week+ to make tooling for injection molding even on an expedited basis and I guarantee you they cannot produce enough of these fancy plastic cartridges to test everyone with present tooling). Of course, I also want to take advantage of the unique capabilities of the cartridge based system where they're most useful. This is mostly because I'm not stupid. Neither is South Korea; they're getting fine just by with traditional, cost-efficient RT-PCR practices.