3 ms·

I suppose central China, northern Italy, Iran, Spain, the rest of Italy, and soon enough France, Germany, New York City, Israel, followed by plenty of other pla

I suppose central China, northern Italy, Iran, Spain, the rest of Italy, and soon enough France, Germany, New York City, Israel, followed by plenty of other places just happen to be vastly unlucky for “some generic reason”.

cycrutchfield 7y ago
It turns out the generic reason was being human
- giantDinosaur 7y ago
  No, the generic reason is age. This is presumably the oldest we've been on average as a species, let alone in certain countries.
  - rsynnott 7y ago
    While age is probably a factor in Italy, it's less of a factor in China, Iran and Spain, which also have high death rates (though the Chinese high death rate was mostly in the early stages). What these cases have in common is a very large surge which overwhelmed local health services. If it was entirely based on age, you'd expect higher rates of death in Japan and Germany (both very elderly populations), lower in China (less elderly population) and much lower in Iran (young population).
dnautics 7y ago
The cfr in those areas is not even close. It seems NYC has one of the lowest cfrs in the us.
- jacobolus 7y ago
  It typically takes 2.5–3 weeks after the start of symptoms for hospitalized patients to die. It only takes a few days to a week for a positive test result to come back. Up until recently people hospitalized in NYC has had access to doctors and equipment, but NYC hospitals are already on the verge of being overwhelmed, and the crisis is just starting there. 2–3 weeks ago the “CFR” (i.e. deaths to date divided by known positive cases) was also very low in Lombardy. The mass social distancing interventions they have undertaken in NYC should hopefully start kicking in, and we can all hope that the situation doesn’t get as bad as Lombardy, but in the mean time there are going to be thousands if not tens of thousands of deaths there, and it looks like doctors may soon end up facing choices about who to put on ventilators.

cycrutchfield 7y ago

It turns out the generic reason was being human

giantDinosaur 7y ago
No, the generic reason is age. This is presumably the oldest we've been on average as a species, let alone in certain countries.
- rsynnott 7y ago
  While age is probably a factor in Italy, it's less of a factor in China, Iran and Spain, which also have high death rates (though the Chinese high death rate was mostly in the early stages). What these cases have in common is a very large surge which overwhelmed local health services. If it was entirely based on age, you'd expect higher rates of death in Japan and Germany (both very elderly populations), lower in China (less elderly population) and much lower in Iran (young population).

dnautics 7y ago

The cfr in those areas is not even close. It seems NYC has one of the lowest cfrs in the us.

jacobolus 7y ago
It typically takes 2.5–3 weeks after the start of symptoms for hospitalized patients to die. It only takes a few days to a week for a positive test result to come back. Up until recently people hospitalized in NYC has had access to doctors and equipment, but NYC hospitals are already on the verge of being overwhelmed, and the crisis is just starting there. 2–3 weeks ago the “CFR” (i.e. deaths to date divided by known positive cases) was also very low in Lombardy. The mass social distancing interventions they have undertaken in NYC should hopefully start kicking in, and we can all hope that the situation doesn’t get as bad as Lombardy, but in the mean time there are going to be thousands if not tens of thousands of deaths there, and it looks like doctors may soon end up facing choices about who to put on ventilators.