3 ms·
One can predict the future with bounded error bars though. Weeks of observation yielded some numbers including R0 around 2 and CFR around one digit percent (yes
by lifthrasiir 7y ago
One can predict the future with bounded error bars though. Weeks of observation yielded some numbers including R0 around 2 and CFR around one digit percent (yes, we still don't know if it's around 1% or 2%, but it is certainly not 0.1% [1] or 10%), so 0.1---5% of the total population will die somehow due to COVID-19 if absolutely nothing is done. For the reference, less than 1% of the total population dies each year in developed countries. Enough reason to be alerted.
[1] CFR is a function of age (notably among others) and more careful analysis would involve demographics. Still, the rough order of magnitude doesn't change.