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This is a new virus, _no one_ knows about the future. Data we have now could be biased toward an hidden variable we didn't figure out yet.
by antpls 7y ago
This is a new virus, _no one_ knows about the future. Data we have now could be biased toward an hidden variable we didn't figure out yet.
- cycrutchfield 7y agoWell, why don't we just wait around and sit on our hands until hundreds of thousands are dead and this hidden variable makes its presence known? Sounds like a winning strategy to me.
- lifthrasiir 7y agoOne can predict the future with bounded error bars though. Weeks of observation yielded some numbers including R0 around 2 and CFR around one digit percent (yes, we still don't know if it's around 1% or 2%, but it is certainly not 0.1% [1] or 10%), so 0.1---5% of the total population will die somehow due to COVID-19 if absolutely nothing is done. For the reference, less than 1% of the total population dies each year in developed countries. Enough reason to be alerted. [1] CFR is a function of age (notably among others) and more careful analysis would involve demographics. Still, the rough order of magnitude doesn't change.