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> but sometimes you have to make decisions without enough data and change your game How orgs mess up handling complex problems, which they are not prepared for
by op03 7y ago
> but sometimes you have to make decisions without enough data and change your game
How orgs mess up handling complex problems, which they are not prepared for, or have the capacities, or time to handle has been studied ever since the second world war scientifically.
And science comes up with the concept of Bounded Rationality.
Which says if an org doesnt have the mental capacities, time, resources or the problem falls in a certain class of complex problems then whatever solution the org comes up with will be half baked.
And half baked solutions create their own issues and the cycle repeats creating a cascade.
Secondly when orgs Choose or are Forced to do something about problems above their capacities and naturally fail, they get blamed, they get defensive and react causing counter reactions which again produce a cascade of issues.
What gets lost in that blame game trap is everyone forgets that no one can solve the problem.
Bounded Rationality and more modern iterations of such theories suggest a simple solution - Pick simpler problems.
- robocat 7y ago> Bounded Rationality and more modern iterations of such theories suggest a simple solution - Pick simpler problems. Reality and emergent behaviour throws us complex problemS (like a novel virus), so how does that advice help?
- op03 7y agoWith more data and info flowing its getting more and more obvious how bad we are at handling complexity. That evidence is going to keep accumulating. How people deal with that fact (or dont) is important. The current response/reaction to that, is to blame/replace leaders/find false messiahs/feel good narratives/distractions etc but all that doesn't reduce complexity. It doesn't require everyone to agree on what our collective and individual limitations are but just to focus on limitations of those we don't like. Its a trap and what the theory says is it wont matter what people do in response to crisis when they are stuck in that trap. Orgs do a bunch of things to create conditions where groups/factions don't get carried away by blindness to their own limitations. If you are interested in the subject start with Herbert Simon's books.