6 ms·

John's analysis is cherry picking in many ways. Death rate in Diamond Princess is 1.1% today and 2% is listed as severe. Assuming 50% of severe make it, final f

John's analysis is cherry picking in many ways. Death rate in Diamond Princess is 1.1% today and 2% is listed as severe. Assuming 50% of severe make it, final fatality rate for the ship may end up closer to 2%. John then adds a 50% discount factor but it is not clear how he picked that number. Also, the 1% of population infected seems to be another number pulled out of a hat. If we are basing our figures based only on the ship with no other assumptions, we have to go with 20% infection rate. Thus, one reasonable estimate of risk from the ship data is 20%x2%x330M = 1.3M deaths if we wait for "evidence" and did nothing. Clearly, this argues for doing something! Edit: Also, Germany does not test dead folks for coronavirus while Italy does. Further, SK death rate has gone up to 1.3% (0.9% is an old number) and many more are in severe category. Thus, the sub 1% numbers seem more like the outliers than the above 1% numbers.

ant6n 7y ago
The Diamond Princess is also likely not a random sample of the population - they are healthy enough to be fit for travel.
- giantDinosaur 7y ago
  You don't need to be particularly fit or healthy to go on a cruise. Yes, sure, you can't be on life support, but generally 'healthy enough' to travel on a cruise is exactly what I'd expect from any random sample of the overall population.
  - kgwgk 7y ago
    You may not understand what "random sample of the overall population" means if you would expect every single person in the sample to be healthy enough to travel on a cruise. Almost 1% of the population in the US has Alzheimer disease or other dementias, for example.
    - giantDinosaur 7y ago
      I noted exactly that in my comment. Yes, not all the population can go on a cruise. No, it's not like it's only the healthiest 20% of the population that can. If I randomly sampled the population I'd expect the majority to be capable of a cruise. What do you think cruises are like?
      - kgwgk 7y ago
        If you agree that they are not a random sample of the population - they are healthy enough to be fit for travel (like the majority of the population) you are not trying to contradict ant6n's comment as I thought. I misunderstood, my apologies.
        rvnx 7y ago
        and it's not a small travel (e.g. the British tourists that went on board the Diamond Princess). If you are not in good health at the beginning, you don't adventure yourself 10 hours+ from your home. So this group is likely in better shape than average population.
      - Klinky 7y ago
        It's been hitting those in assisted living facilities rather hard, and those people would likely not be able to take a cruise.
  - Retric 7y ago
    The problem is the disease is mostly killing off the least heathy. Exclude only 5% of the population and deaths might easily drop by 1+%. Further the Dimond Princess was evacuated specifically because they could not contain the spread. Suggesting their rate of infection is indicative of anything would mean we had somewhere to be evacuated to.
- MaxBarraclough 7y ago
  Isn't the average age on a cruise ship far older than in the general population? I would've thought the people on board would on average be far more vulnerable.
  - Retric 7y ago
    It’s a narrow band excluding the young and oldest so, the average is older but the maximum is younger. With a very sharp decline in their 80’s, which is when things really get bad. Considering how quickly the numbers get worse with age and ill heath many countries are at higher risk.
headmelted 7y ago
Why 20%? That also seems wildly optimistic. 80% seems like a more reasonable assumption than 20%. Also - 99.9% of those patients (pulled out of a hat) wouldn't have access to health care because the capacity was already overwhelmed, so the death rate will jump markedly.
- kragen 7y ago
  Because 712 out of the 3711 passengers and crew were infected, and 713÷3713 ≈ 19.2%. So that gives us some sort of vague idea how much of the population from which the ship was drawn will become infected if exposed.
Retric 7y ago
The Dimond Princess was evacuated. It’s passengers where unusually healthy for their age range, and while older than the general population had few people over 85 which is the most at risk population. Further, these people got world class care from experts and whatever minimal care an overworked heath system could provide. Given all that they still had 9 deaths out of 712 infected with many still in critical condition.
- easytiger 7y ago
  > It’s passengers where unusually healthy for their age range based on what?
  - Hitton 7y ago
    Based on going on cruise. People who are bedridden or who can barely walk don't usually do that.
    - easytiger 7y ago
      You don't have to be bedridden to have lungs that are one cold away from death. People with advanced COPD etc are everywhere but can walk short distances etc and prefer cruises to schlepping through airports and whatnot. Knowing people who go on large long cruises they tell me they've never been on one where they didn't have at least one death. Indeed I know people with serious health issues who go on these knowing there is good on site medical care at hand.
      - deleted 7y ago
        [deleted]
      - Retric 7y ago
        Large ships have a lot of passengers. In the US Men hit a 2% chance of death at 68, which jumps to 3.6% at 75. At 85 that jumps to 9.6%, and by 95 your at 26% and the numbers keep increasing. This means you can’t simply look at the average age to estimate risk factors. Still a 2% risk of death per year x 3000 people = 1.15 deaths per week ignoring crew. In other words what you’re describing is still a fairly heathy population.
easytiger 7y ago
Diamond Princess was largely elderly people.

ant6n 7y ago

The Diamond Princess is also likely not a random sample of the population - they are healthy enough to be fit for travel.

giantDinosaur 7y ago
You don't need to be particularly fit or healthy to go on a cruise. Yes, sure, you can't be on life support, but generally 'healthy enough' to travel on a cruise is exactly what I'd expect from any random sample of the overall population.
- kgwgk 7y ago
  You may not understand what "random sample of the overall population" means if you would expect every single person in the sample to be healthy enough to travel on a cruise. Almost 1% of the population in the US has Alzheimer disease or other dementias, for example.
  - giantDinosaur 7y ago
    I noted exactly that in my comment. Yes, not all the population can go on a cruise. No, it's not like it's only the healthiest 20% of the population that can. If I randomly sampled the population I'd expect the majority to be capable of a cruise. What do you think cruises are like?
    - kgwgk 7y ago
      If you agree that they are not a random sample of the population - they are healthy enough to be fit for travel (like the majority of the population) you are not trying to contradict ant6n's comment as I thought. I misunderstood, my apologies.
      - rvnx 7y ago
        and it's not a small travel (e.g. the British tourists that went on board the Diamond Princess). If you are not in good health at the beginning, you don't adventure yourself 10 hours+ from your home. So this group is likely in better shape than average population.
    - Klinky 7y ago
      It's been hitting those in assisted living facilities rather hard, and those people would likely not be able to take a cruise.
- Retric 7y ago
  The problem is the disease is mostly killing off the least heathy. Exclude only 5% of the population and deaths might easily drop by 1+%. Further the Dimond Princess was evacuated specifically because they could not contain the spread. Suggesting their rate of infection is indicative of anything would mean we had somewhere to be evacuated to.
MaxBarraclough 7y ago
Isn't the average age on a cruise ship far older than in the general population? I would've thought the people on board would on average be far more vulnerable.
- Retric 7y ago
  It’s a narrow band excluding the young and oldest so, the average is older but the maximum is younger. With a very sharp decline in their 80’s, which is when things really get bad. Considering how quickly the numbers get worse with age and ill heath many countries are at higher risk.

headmelted 7y ago

Why 20%? That also seems wildly optimistic. 80% seems like a more reasonable assumption than 20%. Also - 99.9% of those patients (pulled out of a hat) wouldn't have access to health care because the capacity was already overwhelmed, so the death rate will jump markedly.

kragen 7y ago
Because 712 out of the 3711 passengers and crew were infected, and 713÷3713 ≈ 19.2%. So that gives us some sort of vague idea how much of the population from which the ship was drawn will become infected if exposed.

Retric 7y ago

The Dimond Princess was evacuated. It’s passengers where unusually healthy for their age range, and while older than the general population had few people over 85 which is the most at risk population. Further, these people got world class care from experts and whatever minimal care an overworked heath system could provide. Given all that they still had 9 deaths out of 712 infected with many still in critical condition.

easytiger 7y ago
> It’s passengers where unusually healthy for their age range based on what?
- Hitton 7y ago
  Based on going on cruise. People who are bedridden or who can barely walk don't usually do that.
  - easytiger 7y ago
    You don't have to be bedridden to have lungs that are one cold away from death. People with advanced COPD etc are everywhere but can walk short distances etc and prefer cruises to schlepping through airports and whatnot. Knowing people who go on large long cruises they tell me they've never been on one where they didn't have at least one death. Indeed I know people with serious health issues who go on these knowing there is good on site medical care at hand.
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
    - Retric 7y ago
      Large ships have a lot of passengers. In the US Men hit a 2% chance of death at 68, which jumps to 3.6% at 75. At 85 that jumps to 9.6%, and by 95 your at 26% and the numbers keep increasing. This means you can’t simply look at the average age to estimate risk factors. Still a 2% risk of death per year x 3000 people = 1.15 deaths per week ignoring crew. In other words what you’re describing is still a fairly heathy population.

easytiger 7y ago

Diamond Princess was largely elderly people.