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I wonder how it's neighbour New Zealand would fair given that they are on a full lockdown with compulsary self-isolation for all citizens?[0] The article menti

by scanny 7y ago

I wonder how it's neighbour New Zealand would fair given that they are on a full lockdown with compulsary self-isolation for all citizens?[0] The article mentions that a "turnaround will come in the final three months of 2020", but surely Australia is going to be impacted just has badly as other states and this isn't even the beginning? [1] https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/120468079/coronavirus-new-zealand-has-a-threat-system-heres-how-it-works-and-how-it-will-affect-you https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/12046807...

keithnz 7y ago
I'm in NZ.... hard to tell, we have some significant financial aid for businesses to finance and pay wages during the lockdown. Not sure how that's going to work out. It feels like we are possibly in a bit of a sweet spot where we are small enough but big enough to weather our way through this, but hard to know anything for sure. I think we will see the tourism industry savaged a fair bit.
- keithnz 7y ago
  also...In many ways I'm way more worried about the fallout from the US economy, their whole leadership seems a mess with great political divides, lots of mixed messages, and a large growth in cases.
- doldge 7y ago
  similarly in NZ. The health care system is pretty abysmal here which I think is why the government is acting so strongly now; The city I'm in has just 18 ICU beds for a population of around 500,000. We're heading into winter as well and from what I've heard the government is expecting to hit peek case-rates in August. If that is the case, I expect the full lockdowns will be a periodic thing over the coming months in order to keep cases manageable. Too early to really tell how this is going to play out, but I don't think the current financial measures are enough; I expect we'll continue to see them expand in the coming weeks in an attempt to keep businesses a float.
  - BLKNSLVR 7y ago
    I read that in Australia there are a total of 2,200 ICU beds for the ~25 million population. As a result of COVID-19 they're increasing this number as much as possible, but if the infection rates continue the current trend, then there are going to be large numbers of people dying due to the lack of resources. 18 in 500,000 is 0.00366% 2,200 in 25,000,000 is 0.0088% More than double, but still likely to be woefully inadequate.
ecdavis 7y ago
Current modeling indicates that the number of COVID-19 infections will peak in Australia in August[0]. If the modeling is correct, December will have a similar number of active infections as April, but the number will be declining. I imagine Australian governments will be keen to restart the economy as soon as it's safe to do so. [0] https://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/health/dreaded-duo-australia-will-likely-hit-peak-coronavirus-cases-around-flu-season https://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/health/dreaded-duo-austral...
mkl 7y ago
NZ is going into lockdown earlier (but not as early as I would have liked), so that may help. We have ~150 known cases right now, with all but a handful having a clear link to international travel. If people follow the lockdown rules, it seems like it could work, but just like everywhere else, there are idiots here too, so I hope it's enforced pretty hard.

by scanny 7y ago

keithnz 7y ago

I'm in NZ.... hard to tell, we have some significant financial aid for businesses to finance and pay wages during the lockdown. Not sure how that's going to work out. It feels like we are possibly in a bit of a sweet spot where we are small enough but big enough to weather our way through this, but hard to know anything for sure. I think we will see the tourism industry savaged a fair bit.

keithnz 7y ago
also...In many ways I'm way more worried about the fallout from the US economy, their whole leadership seems a mess with great political divides, lots of mixed messages, and a large growth in cases.
doldge 7y ago
similarly in NZ. The health care system is pretty abysmal here which I think is why the government is acting so strongly now; The city I'm in has just 18 ICU beds for a population of around 500,000. We're heading into winter as well and from what I've heard the government is expecting to hit peek case-rates in August. If that is the case, I expect the full lockdowns will be a periodic thing over the coming months in order to keep cases manageable. Too early to really tell how this is going to play out, but I don't think the current financial measures are enough; I expect we'll continue to see them expand in the coming weeks in an attempt to keep businesses a float.
- BLKNSLVR 7y ago
  I read that in Australia there are a total of 2,200 ICU beds for the ~25 million population. As a result of COVID-19 they're increasing this number as much as possible, but if the infection rates continue the current trend, then there are going to be large numbers of people dying due to the lack of resources. 18 in 500,000 is 0.00366% 2,200 in 25,000,000 is 0.0088% More than double, but still likely to be woefully inadequate.

ecdavis 7y ago

Current modeling indicates that the number of COVID-19 infections will peak in Australia in August[0]. If the modeling is correct, December will have a similar number of active infections as April, but the number will be declining. I imagine Australian governments will be keen to restart the economy as soon as it's safe to do so. [0] https://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/health/dreaded-duo-australia-will-likely-hit-peak-coronavirus-cases-around-flu-season https://newsroom.unsw.edu.au/news/health/dreaded-duo-austral...

mkl 7y ago

NZ is going into lockdown earlier (but not as early as I would have liked), so that may help. We have ~150 known cases right now, with all but a handful having a clear link to international travel. If people follow the lockdown rules, it seems like it could work, but just like everywhere else, there are idiots here too, so I hope it's enforced pretty hard.