5 ms·

It's weird because I'm just as afraid of a black swan of unforeseen, runaway financial collapse due to pandemic countermeasures. People seem awfully glib about

It's weird because I'm just as afraid of a black swan of unforeseen, runaway financial collapse due to pandemic countermeasures. People seem awfully glib about how many will die from the pursuant depression.

rootusrootus 7y ago
I'm becoming considerably more afraid of the social and economic consequences from the pandemic countermeasures than of the virus itself.
- amiga_500 7y ago
  My main fears: 1. They find it does effect kids, it just takes longer 2. They find reinfection is common
  - rapidslowness 7y ago
    Do not fear. 1. All evidence shows children have very low risk of severe illness. It can happen but is very very unlikely. 2. Immunity for corona viruses lasts months or years. Why should it be different for this one? Opposing news stories are mixtures of early discharges from hospitals and false negatives test results. Studies that test also asymptotic cases from Italy and Heinsberg (Germany) (e.g. https://www.faz.net/aktuell/gesellschaft/gesundheit/coronavirus/neue-corona-symptome-entdeckt-virologe-hendrik-streeck-zum-virus-16681450.html https://www.faz.net/aktuell/gesellschaft/gesundheit/coronavi...) indicate a R0 much higher than 2 or 3 (more between 5 and 10). We do not know infected people(!!!). We just know cases. My belief and hope is that virus is so infectious live can return to normal in weeks not months because almost everybody already has or had it (in areas with community spreading). Don't panic. Distance and wait.
- wwweston 7y ago
  We had our chance to get this together years beforehand. We even had a chance to have lower impact interventions be effective 2-3 months ago. There are no chances for light economic impacts now. Use lighter mitigation methods and productivity and demand will get hit by the illness and death itself, both the first order effects that hit those infected (which would be wider), and the second order effects as people improvise their own rightly fearful responses. The main difference you can count on is that the timing would move closer to the peak. AFAICT nobody has a clear model of whether it would be better or worse.
- ClumsyPilot 7y ago
  You do realise that, given no countermeasures, there will be deaths of millions of people, plus half the country I'll. It will collapse the economy. Tou cant save money by ignoring the disease.
  - klmadfejno 7y ago
    I don't argue for no countermeasures due to moral reasons, but I think this is highly misleading. More than half of the deaths from this disease are from people over 80. The majority of people over 80 contribute nothing to the economy, but do receive social services, take up housing, have expensive healthcare, etc. If thanos snapped away everybody over 80, I think the economy would IMPROVE because we suddenly have an enormous chunk of resources that can be used for more useful things than care for the elderly.

rootusrootus 7y ago

I'm becoming considerably more afraid of the social and economic consequences from the pandemic countermeasures than of the virus itself.

amiga_500 7y ago
My main fears: 1. They find it does effect kids, it just takes longer 2. They find reinfection is common
- rapidslowness 7y ago
  Do not fear. 1. All evidence shows children have very low risk of severe illness. It can happen but is very very unlikely. 2. Immunity for corona viruses lasts months or years. Why should it be different for this one? Opposing news stories are mixtures of early discharges from hospitals and false negatives test results. Studies that test also asymptotic cases from Italy and Heinsberg (Germany) (e.g. https://www.faz.net/aktuell/gesellschaft/gesundheit/coronavirus/neue-corona-symptome-entdeckt-virologe-hendrik-streeck-zum-virus-16681450.html https://www.faz.net/aktuell/gesellschaft/gesundheit/coronavi...) indicate a R0 much higher than 2 or 3 (more between 5 and 10). We do not know infected people(!!!). We just know cases. My belief and hope is that virus is so infectious live can return to normal in weeks not months because almost everybody already has or had it (in areas with community spreading). Don't panic. Distance and wait.
wwweston 7y ago
We had our chance to get this together years beforehand. We even had a chance to have lower impact interventions be effective 2-3 months ago. There are no chances for light economic impacts now. Use lighter mitigation methods and productivity and demand will get hit by the illness and death itself, both the first order effects that hit those infected (which would be wider), and the second order effects as people improvise their own rightly fearful responses. The main difference you can count on is that the timing would move closer to the peak. AFAICT nobody has a clear model of whether it would be better or worse.
ClumsyPilot 7y ago
You do realise that, given no countermeasures, there will be deaths of millions of people, plus half the country I'll. It will collapse the economy. Tou cant save money by ignoring the disease.
- klmadfejno 7y ago
  I don't argue for no countermeasures due to moral reasons, but I think this is highly misleading. More than half of the deaths from this disease are from people over 80. The majority of people over 80 contribute nothing to the economy, but do receive social services, take up housing, have expensive healthcare, etc. If thanos snapped away everybody over 80, I think the economy would IMPROVE because we suddenly have an enormous chunk of resources that can be used for more useful things than care for the elderly.