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Is this paper basically saying China and Italy's troubles with COVID-19 "ain't no big deal", and that New York and Washington are not struggling? >"Leaving the
by Klinky 7y ago
Is this paper basically saying China and Italy's troubles with COVID-19 "ain't no big deal", and that New York and Washington are not struggling?
>"Leaving the well-known and highly lethal SARS and MERS coronaviruses aside, other coronaviruses probably have infected millions of people and have killed thousands"
This is not cited, and seems like potentially exaggerated non-evidence based information.
- makomk 7y agoThere's some research out there on this, and apparently at least some of the human coronaviruses have fairly impressive case fatality rates in older people. Still probably under half of what this one is estimated at, but substantial nonetheless. That's just not newsworthy because it's just a cold.
- tobyjsullivan 7y agoFor what it's worth, the US CDC has said this about (H1N1)pdm09. I'm not sure if H1N1 is a coronavirus though and I don't know if there's any published research supporting this. But the author's statement seems reasonable enough given it was qualified with "probably". > From April 12, 2009 to April 10, 2010, CDC estimated there were 60.8 million cases (range: 43.3-89.3 million), 274,304 hospitalizations (range: 195,086-402,719), and 12,469 deaths (range: 8868-18,306) in the United States due to the (H1N1)pdm09 virus. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemic.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/pandemic-resources/2009-h1n1-pandemi...
- mikeyouse 7y agoNope - MERS and SARS were the only large Coronavirus outbreaks. H1N1 is an Influenza A strain (similar to the so-called Spanish Flu).
- anticensor 7y agoSpanish flu and swine flu, you mean. H1N1 is the agent responsible for both.
- jeltz 7y agoThat is untrue. There are coronavirus outbreaks all the time. What makes MERS and SARS special is that they are the only known human coronviruses with high mortality.
- usaar333 7y ago> ,New York and Washington are not struggling Completely different worlds. New York is in some serious trouble. No one is going to even remember Washington has an outbreak in a week's time - it's probably already past peak new cases.
- Klinky 7y agoCompare cases per million residents and reconsider.
- usaar333 7y agoin what way? King County, WA is at 605 and growth has flatlined (without an SIP in place). Manhattan is 2.5x that at 1500+ and probably growing much faster (very high testing rate true positives compared to WA). Westchester is the worst in the country at 3k. (realistically, well over 1% of the population has been infected). The Bay Area (known to be an outbreak) is a blip comparatively - around 200 with sub-exponential growth.
- Klinky 7y agoWhere are you getting your numbers from? King County has 1277[1] confirmed cases. Whatever you were looking at 9 hours ago must be out of date. 1. https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/coronavirus-daily-news-updates-march-24-what-to-know-today-about-covid-19-in-the-seattle-area-washington-state-and-the-nation/ https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/coronavirus...
- usaar333 7y ago605 per million, not absolutely. King County has 2.2 million people.
- Klinky 7y agoThat makes more sense. I still would not say that "No one is going to even remember Washington has an outbreak in a week's time". It's ongoing, shelter in place has been enacted. People will still be dealing with it next week, and its impact on rural areas could also be devastating.