First inspection of this made it seem like a modern reskinning of Ibn Khaldoun's Kitab al Ibar which also attempted to explain the rise and fall of empires[1].

First inspection of this made it seem like a modern reskinning of Ibn Khaldoun's Kitab al Ibar which also attempted to explain the rise and fall of empires[1]. Turns out the wiki page calls this out as an explicit source of inspiration. It seems like it might have more work around the causal mechanism but I'm not familiar enough with the prior art. It also seems like they reject the notion of technology shortening their proposed cycle time, again citing human life spans & social standing as the primary mechanism for institutional change. While I buy the intuition behind the ideas I'm not sure what useful properties such an identification has. To instill confidence that newer generations, in a healthy society, can reshape the institutions they interact with reliably? To identify when this is not happening? [1]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibn_Khaldun#Kit%C4%81b_al-%CA%BBIbar https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ibn_Khaldun#Kit%C4%81b_al-%CA%...