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You can come at this two ways, I think: 1. We replace lost income. First, inflation hawks have been mostly wrong. Second, we are (somewhat) allowing producti
by x0x0 7y ago
You can come at this two ways, I think:
1. We replace lost income. First, inflation hawks have been mostly wrong. Second, we are (somewhat) allowing production of goods to continue, while shutting down customer-facing (ie service) workers. So I suspect the effects will be limited. Second, we'll soon have serologic tests; those folks can just work.
2. We don't replace lost income. We probably have the highest unemployment filings on record, and devastate the lives of folks who work in bars / restaurants / coffee shops / movie theatres / gyms / salons / etc. Their immediate inability to pay much of anything rapidly ricochets through landlords / other goods and services and contaminates small businesses. Many SMBs rapidly lay off lots of their employees and start failing. Our economy hits 20% unemployment rapidly. And btw, this isn't just left-leaning hippies like me; it's also folks like Steve Mnuchin [1].
I'm not sure we're in a place where we get to pick good, better, best; I think we get to pick least bad.
[1] https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/politics/steven-mnuchin-unemployment-warning-coronavirus/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/politics/steven-mnuchin-unemp...
- dominotw 7y ago> . Second, we are (somewhat) allowing production of goods to continue, while shutting down customer-facing (ie service) workers. So I suspect the effects will be limited. So people will still have the extra money left over thats not being spent on 'customer facing services' what will happen to that money ? > Second, we'll soon have serologic tests; those folks can just work I am assuming after 6 months like your original comment implied ? > everyone stays at home nationally, devolving to the responsible states, or devolving even further to responsible employers -- is going to last at least 6 months. I am mostly talking about next 6 months, not post six month scenarios.
- x0x0 7y agoIn response to the first, I don't think the bulk of $ is spent on things that are shutdown, ie restaurants/gym/stylist/etc. I think bulk is spent on rent/mortgage (no supply change), groceries (very limited), meds (ditto). re: serologic: we still have widespread factory production. It's extremely useful to know who is immune.