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> directly and immediately replacing the wages of everyone the government and/or corona are not allowing to work wonder what happens if govt just pays everyone

> directly and immediately replacing the wages of everyone the government and/or corona are not allowing to work wonder what happens if govt just pays everyone for 6 months ( per your estimate). Wouldn't it just merely cause inflation since no actual goods are being allowed to be produced and people will be willing to offer more and more money for limited supplies = inflation?

x0x0 7y ago
You can come at this two ways, I think: 1. We replace lost income. First, inflation hawks have been mostly wrong. Second, we are (somewhat) allowing production of goods to continue, while shutting down customer-facing (ie service) workers. So I suspect the effects will be limited. Second, we'll soon have serologic tests; those folks can just work. 2. We don't replace lost income. We probably have the highest unemployment filings on record, and devastate the lives of folks who work in bars / restaurants / coffee shops / movie theatres / gyms / salons / etc. Their immediate inability to pay much of anything rapidly ricochets through landlords / other goods and services and contaminates small businesses. Many SMBs rapidly lay off lots of their employees and start failing. Our economy hits 20% unemployment rapidly. And btw, this isn't just left-leaning hippies like me; it's also folks like Steve Mnuchin [1]. I'm not sure we're in a place where we get to pick good, better, best; I think we get to pick least bad. [1] https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/politics/steven-mnuchin-unemployment-warning-coronavirus/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/politics/steven-mnuchin-unemp...
- dominotw 7y ago
  > . Second, we are (somewhat) allowing production of goods to continue, while shutting down customer-facing (ie service) workers. So I suspect the effects will be limited. So people will still have the extra money left over thats not being spent on 'customer facing services' what will happen to that money ? > Second, we'll soon have serologic tests; those folks can just work I am assuming after 6 months like your original comment implied ? > everyone stays at home nationally, devolving to the responsible states, or devolving even further to responsible employers -- is going to last at least 6 months. I am mostly talking about next 6 months, not post six month scenarios.
  - x0x0 7y ago
    In response to the first, I don't think the bulk of $ is spent on things that are shutdown, ie restaurants/gym/stylist/etc. I think bulk is spent on rent/mortgage (no supply change), groceries (very limited), meds (ditto). re: serologic: we still have widespread factory production. It's extremely useful to know who is immune.

x0x0 7y ago

You can come at this two ways, I think: 1. We replace lost income. First, inflation hawks have been mostly wrong. Second, we are (somewhat) allowing production of goods to continue, while shutting down customer-facing (ie service) workers. So I suspect the effects will be limited. Second, we'll soon have serologic tests; those folks can just work. 2. We don't replace lost income. We probably have the highest unemployment filings on record, and devastate the lives of folks who work in bars / restaurants / coffee shops / movie theatres / gyms / salons / etc. Their immediate inability to pay much of anything rapidly ricochets through landlords / other goods and services and contaminates small businesses. Many SMBs rapidly lay off lots of their employees and start failing. Our economy hits 20% unemployment rapidly. And btw, this isn't just left-leaning hippies like me; it's also folks like Steve Mnuchin [1]. I'm not sure we're in a place where we get to pick good, better, best; I think we get to pick least bad. [1] https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/politics/steven-mnuchin-unemployment-warning-coronavirus/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/politics/steven-mnuchin-unemp...

dominotw 7y ago
> . Second, we are (somewhat) allowing production of goods to continue, while shutting down customer-facing (ie service) workers. So I suspect the effects will be limited. So people will still have the extra money left over thats not being spent on 'customer facing services' what will happen to that money ? > Second, we'll soon have serologic tests; those folks can just work I am assuming after 6 months like your original comment implied ? > everyone stays at home nationally, devolving to the responsible states, or devolving even further to responsible employers -- is going to last at least 6 months. I am mostly talking about next 6 months, not post six month scenarios.
- x0x0 7y ago
  In response to the first, I don't think the bulk of $ is spent on things that are shutdown, ie restaurants/gym/stylist/etc. I think bulk is spent on rent/mortgage (no supply change), groceries (very limited), meds (ditto). re: serologic: we still have widespread factory production. It's extremely useful to know who is immune.