2 ms·
It's a simple question and it deserves your honest answer. How many dead people are you expecting?
by DanBC 7y ago
It's a simple question and it deserves your honest answer.
How many dead people are you expecting?
- arcticbull 7y agoWell, based on this chart aggregating data from South Korea, China, Spain and Italy [1] (and while from Twitter, I have verified the data points line up) People under 10, nobody has died yet. In the 10-19 category, the CFR is between 0 and 0.45% In the 20-29 category, the CFR is between 0 and 0.31% In the 30-39 category, it's between 0.1 and 0.3%. So let's say they decide anyone under 40 with no co-morbid conditions should go out while the rest remain indoors. I'd say we're looking at a CFR of 0 to 0.1% so in terms of numbers, that would be between 0 and (33% of the population * 0.1% * 66M) ~20K people, max. That's in line with the ~15K flu deaths per year in a bad flu season in the UK. And that's assuming young people with co-morbidities do a bad job of staying inside. [1] https://twitter.com/AndyBiotech/status/1241741127205572609?s=20 https://twitter.com/AndyBiotech/status/1241741127205572609?s...