Spaniard here. Death rates are around 0.6%. Depends on the population pyramid, etc. Forget the detected cases. Focus only on deaths, multiply by the 0.6% ra

Spaniard here. Death rates are around 0.6%. Depends on the population pyramid, etc. Forget the detected cases. Focus only on deaths, multiply by the 0.6% rate and you've got the number of infected up to ~17 days ago. From then, exponential growth: doubles every 2 to 4 days, except if contained. The health care system doesn't matter: the growth is exponential; it takes not long for it to crumble, however good it might be. That's happening in Italy (incl. Lombardia) and Spain. What matters how much profilactic material there is (masks, etc) and ventilators; and to prevent the exponential spreading with containment. In Germany (where I leave) I'm yet to see a single mask. At least people are taking containment more seriously than the government. We'll see what happens when we hit 1000 deaths next Sunday.