FTA: Think Mike Moritz, John Doerr, Jim Breyer, Fred WIlson, Peter Fenton, Danny Rimer, Reid Hoffman and the like are just exceptionally good at throwing darts

FTA: Think Mike Moritz, John Doerr, Jim Breyer, Fred WIlson, Peter Fenton, Danny Rimer, Reid Hoffman and the like are just exceptionally good at throwing darts in the dark? I don’t. I don't doubt your sincerity, but there is no statistically sound justification for it. Put 1000 people in a room, have them flip for double or nothing 10 times, and at the end you'll have a handful of geniuses. That's assuming that they're playing a game where winning once doesn't increase you chance of winning again, which clearly isn't the case in the VC world where the first qualification is to have a lot of money. And let's not forget the element of ruin, which is the likelihood of losing one's bankroll given the size and frequency of bets placed. The one expertise VCs can lay claim to is in the ritual and detail that surrounds the deal-making process: the term sheets, funding rounds, and exit strategies. They're generally skilled at getting contracts written. Beyond that, it's not at all clear that they're any better than 'throwing darts in the dark' in terms of predicting or facilitating business success.