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I mean...there's a limit somewhere, isn't there? I'm not expecting grocery store supply chains to maintain 2x raw supplies reserved and manufacturing capacity..

I mean...there's a limit somewhere, isn't there? I'm not expecting grocery store supply chains to maintain 2x raw supplies reserved and manufacturing capacity...at the very least with the economy in the tank some of these factories that feed stores are going to shut down... And as for farmed foods you can't just flip a switch when everyone is panic buying. Unless you mean to say we throw away half of the harvest under normal conditions.

klodolph 7y ago
Having the economy in the tank doesn’t shut down factories directly, it does it indirectly, e.g. by drying up demand. Demand for groceries is up. Food demand is relatively inelastic. What changes is which food has demand. The supply chain for food is complicated, to say the least, but one of the things about food is that we’ve been working on extending shelf life for the past hundred years, and transport food globally, and it really shows. You can buy apples at the supermarket right now, even though they went out of season in October. If you had to think for a moment about when “in season” is for apples, well, the reason why you had to pause and think is because the modern supply chain gives you apples year round. The only way it can do that is by having a massive stockpile of shelf-stable apples which are sourced from both hemispheres. As a matter of details, people aren’t really eating more or less, we’re just getting different foods through different channels, and the long & complicated supply chain takes a while to switch over. I just want to emphasize again that the supply chain is a real beast. Because of the nature of the beast, it has to have excess capacity, because it is just so damn inefficient. > And as for farmed foods you can't just flip a switch when everyone is panic buying. There’s enough slack in the supply chain to absorb panic buying, if you wait it out. Anecdotally, panic buying is drying up in NYC and we’re getting closer to steady state.
- adamc 7y ago
  Totally an anecdote, but grocery stores in Austin, TX are much better stocked than they were a week ago. There's only so much over-buying the average household can do before the pantry is totally full. Give it another week or two and things will be much better.

klodolph 7y ago

Having the economy in the tank doesn’t shut down factories directly, it does it indirectly, e.g. by drying up demand. Demand for groceries is up. Food demand is relatively inelastic. What changes is which food has demand. The supply chain for food is complicated, to say the least, but one of the things about food is that we’ve been working on extending shelf life for the past hundred years, and transport food globally, and it really shows. You can buy apples at the supermarket right now, even though they went out of season in October. If you had to think for a moment about when “in season” is for apples, well, the reason why you had to pause and think is because the modern supply chain gives you apples year round. The only way it can do that is by having a massive stockpile of shelf-stable apples which are sourced from both hemispheres. As a matter of details, people aren’t really eating more or less, we’re just getting different foods through different channels, and the long & complicated supply chain takes a while to switch over. I just want to emphasize again that the supply chain is a real beast. Because of the nature of the beast, it has to have excess capacity, because it is just so damn inefficient. > And as for farmed foods you can't just flip a switch when everyone is panic buying. There’s enough slack in the supply chain to absorb panic buying, if you wait it out. Anecdotally, panic buying is drying up in NYC and we’re getting closer to steady state.

adamc 7y ago
Totally an anecdote, but grocery stores in Austin, TX are much better stocked than they were a week ago. There's only so much over-buying the average household can do before the pantry is totally full. Give it another week or two and things will be much better.