I found an earlier reference (May 2006) in the context of transmission prevention here [0]: > The idea that within a week or two of a pandemic's initiation we

I found an earlier reference (May 2006) in the context of transmission prevention here [0]: > The idea that within a week or two of a pandemic's initiation we could quench it by saturating a ring of at-risk population with oseltamivir, achieving 90% coverage and high compliance, and at the same time impose movement restrictions and social distancing—all this depending on the causal virus having an Ro <2·0—is simply fanciful. [0] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140673606686650/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS014067... It's also referenced here [1] in the context of the SARS pandemic, but I'd argue that the usage isn't quite the same. [1] https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/pdf/10.1089/bsp.2004.2.265 https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/pdf/10.1089/bsp.2004.2.265