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No access to article, but an entire generation of money managers have grown up with the Everything Bubble starting in 2009, fueled by Fed largesse. They've neve

by aazaa 7y ago

No access to article, but an entire generation of money managers have grown up with the Everything Bubble starting in 2009, fueled by Fed largesse. They've never even seen a bear market, let alone a financial panic. Most have completely ignored the alarming rise in valuations and market distortions, engaging in extremely risky behavior for years on end.

Retric 7y ago
Yea, looking at P/E ratios based before COVID most companies only fell to a reasonable level. I’m looking at the market and thinking it’s still a little high. A rising or falling stock market is not inherently good or bad thing. It’s only really relevant as a prediction of future trends.
- dwater 7y ago
  Yes, I heard a "market analyst" on the radio this morning talking about how the market is probably near the bottom now that COVID19 has been priced in, and it's time to start thinking about economic recovery. Meanwhile, a reasonable analysis of the medical situation in the US leads one to expect there's a lot more downside to be exposed. What will happen to the market when people who thought they had good health coverage are turned away from hospitals, not in Brooklyn but in Kansas City and Peoria? Some forecasts put us 2-4 weeks from that.
  - OJFord 7y ago
    > near the bottom now that COVID19 has been priced in, [...] Meanwhile, a reasonable analysis of the medical situation in the US leads one to expect there's a lot more downside to be exposed. That's exactly what they mean that's been 'priced in'. I don't happen to agree, but you can't say 'the situation hasn't been priced in, because the situation is going to get worse', because the whole point of 'pricing in' is that it's taking into account whatever thing we're pricing in, wherever we're going.
  - munk-a 7y ago
    It's my estimation that farming and food manufacturing sectors will be able to ride out this issue without feeling much hurt, but I think it's too early to definitively say. Right now tech stocks aren't doing terrible but if service companies start actually shuttering their doors then we're in for a lot more market dropping.
ryandrake 7y ago
Not just money managers, but many investors of all sorts have never witnessed a bear market. If one thing good comes out of this crisis, it might be an end to this widely held belief that the stock market is some magical "risk-free 7% return forever" investment.
K2L8M11N2 7y ago
https://archive.is/Gluq8 https://archive.is/Gluq8

by aazaa 7y ago

Retric 7y ago

Yea, looking at P/E ratios based before COVID most companies only fell to a reasonable level. I’m looking at the market and thinking it’s still a little high. A rising or falling stock market is not inherently good or bad thing. It’s only really relevant as a prediction of future trends.

dwater 7y ago
Yes, I heard a "market analyst" on the radio this morning talking about how the market is probably near the bottom now that COVID19 has been priced in, and it's time to start thinking about economic recovery. Meanwhile, a reasonable analysis of the medical situation in the US leads one to expect there's a lot more downside to be exposed. What will happen to the market when people who thought they had good health coverage are turned away from hospitals, not in Brooklyn but in Kansas City and Peoria? Some forecasts put us 2-4 weeks from that.
- OJFord 7y ago
  > near the bottom now that COVID19 has been priced in, [...] Meanwhile, a reasonable analysis of the medical situation in the US leads one to expect there's a lot more downside to be exposed. That's exactly what they mean that's been 'priced in'. I don't happen to agree, but you can't say 'the situation hasn't been priced in, because the situation is going to get worse', because the whole point of 'pricing in' is that it's taking into account whatever thing we're pricing in, wherever we're going.
- munk-a 7y ago
  It's my estimation that farming and food manufacturing sectors will be able to ride out this issue without feeling much hurt, but I think it's too early to definitively say. Right now tech stocks aren't doing terrible but if service companies start actually shuttering their doors then we're in for a lot more market dropping.

ryandrake 7y ago

Not just money managers, but many investors of all sorts have never witnessed a bear market. If one thing good comes out of this crisis, it might be an end to this widely held belief that the stock market is some magical "risk-free 7% return forever" investment.

K2L8M11N2 7y ago

https://archive.is/Gluq8 https://archive.is/Gluq8