3 ms·

My friends and I had the same question. I did a little searching and found an interesting paper[0]. The oldest reference it has is from 2009[1] [0] https://jou

My friends and I had the same question. I did a little searching and found an interesting paper[0]. The oldest reference it has is from 2009[1] [0] https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/journal.pcbi.1000793 https://journals.plos.org/ploscompbiol/article?id=10.1371/jo... [1] Kelso J,Milne G,Kelly H (2009) Simulation suggests that rapid activation of social distancing can arrest epidemic development due to a novel strain of influenza. BMC Public Health 9: 117.

shrikant 7y ago
I found an earlier reference (May 2006) in the context of transmission prevention here [0]: > The idea that within a week or two of a pandemic's initiation we could quench it by saturating a ring of at-risk population with oseltamivir, achieving 90% coverage and high compliance, and at the same time impose movement restrictions and social distancing—all this depending on the causal virus having an Ro <2·0—is simply fanciful. [0] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140673606686650/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS014067... It's also referenced here [1] in the context of the SARS pandemic, but I'd argue that the usage isn't quite the same. [1] https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/pdf/10.1089/bsp.2004.2.265 https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/pdf/10.1089/bsp.2004.2.265
dredmorbius 7y ago
May 2006: "National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza: Implementation Plan", US Department of Homeland Security https://books.google.com/books?id=4rnZeV0YhvUC&pg=PA171&dq=%22social+distancing%22+(epidemic%7Cpandemic%7C%22public+health%22%7Cepidemiology)&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjG8q7KrKPoAhWEHc0KHdhACBsQ6AEINTAC#v=onepage&q=%22social%20distancing%22%20(epidemic%7Cpandemic%7C%22public%20health%22%7Cepidemiology)&f=false https://books.google.com/books?id=4rnZeV0YhvUC&pg=PA171&dq=%...

shrikant 7y ago

I found an earlier reference (May 2006) in the context of transmission prevention here [0]: > The idea that within a week or two of a pandemic's initiation we could quench it by saturating a ring of at-risk population with oseltamivir, achieving 90% coverage and high compliance, and at the same time impose movement restrictions and social distancing—all this depending on the causal virus having an Ro <2·0—is simply fanciful. [0] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140673606686650/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS014067... It's also referenced here [1] in the context of the SARS pandemic, but I'd argue that the usage isn't quite the same. [1] https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/pdf/10.1089/bsp.2004.2.265 https://www.liebertpub.com/doi/pdf/10.1089/bsp.2004.2.265

dredmorbius 7y ago

May 2006: "National Strategy for Pandemic Influenza: Implementation Plan", US Department of Homeland Security https://books.google.com/books?id=4rnZeV0YhvUC&pg=PA171&dq=%22social+distancing%22+(epidemic%7Cpandemic%7C%22public+health%22%7Cepidemiology)&hl=en&sa=X&ved=0ahUKEwjG8q7KrKPoAhWEHc0KHdhACBsQ6AEINTAC#v=onepage&q=%22social%20distancing%22%20(epidemic%7Cpandemic%7C%22public%20health%22%7Cepidemiology)&f=false https://books.google.com/books?id=4rnZeV0YhvUC&pg=PA171&dq=%...