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How are you deriving that 1% number when tests are highly skewed toward severe positive cases, and the virus primarily manifests with mild/no symptoms?
by willturman 7y ago
How are you deriving that 1% number when tests are highly skewed toward severe positive cases, and the virus primarily manifests with mild/no symptoms?
- rurban 7y agoIt's not me deriving the 1% number. These are the official numbers for the IFR. The CFR is entirely unreliable. The only good estimates are from the Diamond Princess, as all persons there have been tested. Most countries only test people with symptoms, with about a factor 5 missing. Chinese data is completely unreliable, South Korean best, behind the Diamond Princess. Now they even started talking of 0.30% and lower. * https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/fnd2vc/covid19_fatality_is_likely_overestimated/ https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/fnd2vc/covid19_fat... * https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/fljcwy/early_epidemiological_assessment_of_the/ https://old.reddit.com/r/COVID19/comments/fljcwy/early_epide... Studies: https://voxeu.org/article/intergenerational-ties-and-case-fatality-rates https://voxeu.org/article/intergenerational-ties-and-case-fa... CFR's: Korea 0.97%, rest of China 0.4%, Germany 0.22%, Singapore 0.0%, Diamond Princess <1%