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So, I don't think you're going to like this answer. My assumption is corona lockdowns -- whether formal everyone stays at home nationally, devolving to the res
by x0x0 7y ago
So, I don't think you're going to like this answer.
My assumption is corona lockdowns -- whether formal everyone stays at home nationally, devolving to the responsible states, or devolving even further to responsible employers -- is going to last at least 6 months. We'll see some data when China attempts to relax restrictions. I'd also assume that all the stuff folks normally do to for their kids for the summer period while they aren't in school -- ie all the camps -- are basically not going to happen, so you're going to be doing this until at least labor day.
As a cxx, we can / are definitely expecting some choppiness over the next couple weeks while everyone figures out how things work with us all working from home with the entire family home.
Given the economic guesses above, an inability to put in a reasonable workday is likely going to be a problem for you given the length of time I'm guessing we're going to be doing this. It also depends on how well capitalized your employer is.
Second, we (not saying my company, but definitely the US) are going to see layoffs. My company has already frozen hiring, to the obvious intent of not having layoffs and making cash last as long as possible. The US already has skyrocketing unemployment claims and an easily visible ongoing devastation of small business. The Republicans in the senate appear to have no interest in directly and immediately replacing the wages of everyone the government and/or corona are not allowing to work. This adds up to, most likely, a whopping recession. You're a family man, so you need to figure out how to keep yourself out of the line of fire, and my advice would be if that means working tired... you should work tired. NB: I'm not saying this is right or fair, just probably the best plan unless you have large cash savings.
At my company, we're figuring out how to support parents and, to be honest, we don't have a solid plan right now. A lot hinges on how deep the recession is going to be. We're already pricing in large sales falls. Again -- as mentioned above -- short term choppiness / reduction of work is fine, but if it is long term, and corona requires we work at home for an extended period of time, we're not in a financial position to weather a recession, pay full wages, and have a large falloff in work output.
- dominotw 7y ago> directly and immediately replacing the wages of everyone the government and/or corona are not allowing to work wonder what happens if govt just pays everyone for 6 months ( per your estimate). Wouldn't it just merely cause inflation since no actual goods are being allowed to be produced and people will be willing to offer more and more money for limited supplies = inflation?
- x0x0 7y agoYou can come at this two ways, I think: 1. We replace lost income. First, inflation hawks have been mostly wrong. Second, we are (somewhat) allowing production of goods to continue, while shutting down customer-facing (ie service) workers. So I suspect the effects will be limited. Second, we'll soon have serologic tests; those folks can just work. 2. We don't replace lost income. We probably have the highest unemployment filings on record, and devastate the lives of folks who work in bars / restaurants / coffee shops / movie theatres / gyms / salons / etc. Their immediate inability to pay much of anything rapidly ricochets through landlords / other goods and services and contaminates small businesses. Many SMBs rapidly lay off lots of their employees and start failing. Our economy hits 20% unemployment rapidly. And btw, this isn't just left-leaning hippies like me; it's also folks like Steve Mnuchin [1]. I'm not sure we're in a place where we get to pick good, better, best; I think we get to pick least bad. [1] https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/politics/steven-mnuchin-unemployment-warning-coronavirus/index.html https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/17/politics/steven-mnuchin-unemp...
- dominotw 7y ago> . Second, we are (somewhat) allowing production of goods to continue, while shutting down customer-facing (ie service) workers. So I suspect the effects will be limited. So people will still have the extra money left over thats not being spent on 'customer facing services' what will happen to that money ? > Second, we'll soon have serologic tests; those folks can just work I am assuming after 6 months like your original comment implied ? > everyone stays at home nationally, devolving to the responsible states, or devolving even further to responsible employers -- is going to last at least 6 months. I am mostly talking about next 6 months, not post six month scenarios.
- x0x0 7y agoIn response to the first, I don't think the bulk of $ is spent on things that are shutdown, ie restaurants/gym/stylist/etc. I think bulk is spent on rent/mortgage (no supply change), groceries (very limited), meds (ditto). re: serologic: we still have widespread factory production. It's extremely useful to know who is immune.