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The use of the graph is ridiculous in this post. If the author wants to predict a free Kindle in the near future and back it up with some one line quote from Be
by pauldix 16y ago
The use of the graph is ridiculous in this post. If the author wants to predict a free Kindle in the near future and back it up with some one line quote from Bezos, fine. However, that graph is pointless. I can craft countless other curves to those four points that are just as "predictive" as that one yet would predict vastly different prices. Further, if that graph was correct, Amazon would start paying us to take Kindles soon after. Just keep following that time axis!
Fitting points to a time line and drawing it out to infinity is a pointless and erroneous predictor. Read Proofinesss by Seife. He talks about these and other mistakes made by people trying to back up their arguments with error prone data and approaches.
- Homunculiheaded 16y agoAt least my reading of this was that the author was obviously just having fun with the idea that "Hey from just 4 points of data we can extract that the kindle will be free in nov 2011", however Jeff Bezos' reaction of "Oh you noticed", even if also somewhat in jest, was interesting enough for the author to ask in what ways would a free kindle be possible. Even if Arrington's idea is a year and not a week old it certainly would seem to make sense, especially with Amazon adding free video to free 2day shipping with Prime.
- protomyth 16y agoI agree with you, and the use of any graph actually detracts from the point. It would have been better if the author had offered the data points (sans graph) and provided a transition paragraph to explain a thesis of "does the cost drop enough to give it away".
- maw 16y agoAmazon would start paying us to take Kindles I fully intend to take delivery of a Kindle once a day or so instead of working. It's gonna be pretty sweet.