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Yeah I'm not really buying what these articles are selling. The world had plenty of time to act and opted not to. This all seems more like an attempt to avoid b

Yeah I'm not really buying what these articles are selling. The world had plenty of time to act and opted not to. This all seems more like an attempt to avoid blame than a credible analysis of the situation. It's a far better story for the western politicians that the evil Chinese didn't give enough warning than to acknowledge that plenty of warning was given and none was heeded until the developing crisis was already realized in western countries.

aww_dang 7y ago
There are two separate ideas at play here. 1)The credibility of the WHO in regards to the CCP. 2)The culpability of CCP in regards to covering up the pandemic which began in territory it controls. Allegedly this outbreak began in November. Doctors who warned about it were arrested. Your response references a third issue 3)Western officials had sufficient time to formulate a 'better' response
- asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
  To the extent the CCP covered this up in Nov/Dec, it was definitely an evil act. However, I don't think that should very much move the needle on what we believe about the state on the ground in China today. The country is not so closed off that they could hide ongoing mass COVID infections. The WHO's agreement is only one of the several datapoints I mentioned.
  - aww_dang 7y ago
    Economic, pollution data is similarly manipulated. Local officials have incentives to misreport this data. Why should infection data be any different? The current CCP narrative is that all new cases are imported. Do you find this credible?
    - asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
      I don't know if I believe the exact numbers. I think they are likely at the right order of magnitude.
    - TeMPOraL 7y ago
      > pollution data is similarly manipulated Even the satellite measurements NASA shoots? I'd sincerely like to see the tech behind that coverup!
      - aww_dang 7y ago
        I'm not sure why you would bring NASA into this conversation. https://www.nber.org/papers/w18729 https://www.nber.org/papers/w18729
    - malandrew 7y ago
      Not in the least. That said, having lived and worked in China, any official at the local level would be prudent find a way to attribute all local cases to being imported and not local transmission. This whole debacle will end up being the CCP's Chernobyl moment; systemic failure due to CYA mentality because the consequences from the state apparatus are perceived as the worst possible personal outcome.
mardifoufs 7y ago
It's hard to prepare when the WHO [0] was still telling that the virus probably doesn't spread between humans as little as 2 months ago. Of course the western governments should've reacted earlier, but the margin wasn't that big. The WHO were the observers on the ground and they chose to play down the whole thing to ease china. [0] https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152?s=20 https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152?s=20
- lonelappde 7y ago
  2 months ago China had already announced human to human transmission. WHO isn't a an omniscient god. They don't have any information that regional authorities don't give them. If Chinese government lies, that's the Chinese government's crime. People got sick at a fish market in December. It was reported up to government as a potentially novel illness by Dec 31. A mere 2 weeks later on Jan 14 there was no clear evidence of transmission yet, because viruses take time to transmit and incubate and sicken and get reported to authorities. On Jan 20 Chinese authorities announced human transmission. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/timeline-china-coronavirus-spread-200126061554884.html https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/timeline-china-corona...
aianus 7y ago
The WHO continually and explicitly encouraged countries to leave borders open at a time when all cases (outside of Hubei) were imported from abroad. Since almost all cases at the time were Chinese, I don’t see any reason for this advice other than appeasing the PRC. Even today the vast majority of new cases in my country (Canada) are directly related to international travel. It seems obvious that all of this could have been avoided with earlier border closures. I blame the WHO for mishandling this pandemic because they were the only international agency that could have coordinated multilateral border closures in a diplomatic way but chose not to in order to make China happy.

aww_dang 7y ago

There are two separate ideas at play here. 1)The credibility of the WHO in regards to the CCP. 2)The culpability of CCP in regards to covering up the pandemic which began in territory it controls. Allegedly this outbreak began in November. Doctors who warned about it were arrested. Your response references a third issue 3)Western officials had sufficient time to formulate a 'better' response

asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
To the extent the CCP covered this up in Nov/Dec, it was definitely an evil act. However, I don't think that should very much move the needle on what we believe about the state on the ground in China today. The country is not so closed off that they could hide ongoing mass COVID infections. The WHO's agreement is only one of the several datapoints I mentioned.
- aww_dang 7y ago
  Economic, pollution data is similarly manipulated. Local officials have incentives to misreport this data. Why should infection data be any different? The current CCP narrative is that all new cases are imported. Do you find this credible?
  - asdfasgasdgasdg 7y ago
    I don't know if I believe the exact numbers. I think they are likely at the right order of magnitude.
  - TeMPOraL 7y ago
    > pollution data is similarly manipulated Even the satellite measurements NASA shoots? I'd sincerely like to see the tech behind that coverup!
    - aww_dang 7y ago
      I'm not sure why you would bring NASA into this conversation. https://www.nber.org/papers/w18729 https://www.nber.org/papers/w18729
  - malandrew 7y ago
    Not in the least. That said, having lived and worked in China, any official at the local level would be prudent find a way to attribute all local cases to being imported and not local transmission. This whole debacle will end up being the CCP's Chernobyl moment; systemic failure due to CYA mentality because the consequences from the state apparatus are perceived as the worst possible personal outcome.

mardifoufs 7y ago

It's hard to prepare when the WHO [0] was still telling that the virus probably doesn't spread between humans as little as 2 months ago. Of course the western governments should've reacted earlier, but the margin wasn't that big. The WHO were the observers on the ground and they chose to play down the whole thing to ease china. [0] https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152?s=20 https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1217043229427761152?s=20

lonelappde 7y ago
2 months ago China had already announced human to human transmission. WHO isn't a an omniscient god. They don't have any information that regional authorities don't give them. If Chinese government lies, that's the Chinese government's crime. People got sick at a fish market in December. It was reported up to government as a potentially novel illness by Dec 31. A mere 2 weeks later on Jan 14 there was no clear evidence of transmission yet, because viruses take time to transmit and incubate and sicken and get reported to authorities. On Jan 20 Chinese authorities announced human transmission. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/timeline-china-coronavirus-spread-200126061554884.html https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/timeline-china-corona...

aianus 7y ago

The WHO continually and explicitly encouraged countries to leave borders open at a time when all cases (outside of Hubei) were imported from abroad. Since almost all cases at the time were Chinese, I don’t see any reason for this advice other than appeasing the PRC. Even today the vast majority of new cases in my country (Canada) are directly related to international travel. It seems obvious that all of this could have been avoided with earlier border closures. I blame the WHO for mishandling this pandemic because they were the only international agency that could have coordinated multilateral border closures in a diplomatic way but chose not to in order to make China happy.