5 ms·

I don’t know why you were downvoted. Maybe because of the second sentence? Mutation is a very real problem. After all flu goes through it all the time. That is

by drclau 7y ago

I don’t know why you were downvoted. Maybe because of the second sentence? Mutation is a very real problem. After all flu goes through it all the time. That is the main reason why we get flu regularly. Second reason is that the immunity may be temporary.

umanwizard 7y ago
Flu is not a Coronavirus.
lotsofpulp 7y ago
Influenza is not a coronavirus: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orthomyxoviridae https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orthomyxoviridae https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus
- drclau 7y ago
  You are right, I edited it out. The mutation remains a potential issue though.
deng 7y ago
So how do you fight mutation? By avoiding further spread of the virus. So really, this "danger of mutation" talk does not add anything to the discussion. In fact, it could equally well happen that the virus mutates to something less lethal.
- drclau 7y ago
  I disagree that the danger of mutation does not add anything to the conversation. If it is real, then it just shows how important it is to act now swiftly and to not rely on developing herd immunity. And you are right, mutations can go both ways.
CaptArmchair 7y ago
What we understand under "mutation" consists of 2 basic facts: * During replication of cells, DNA changes happen by accident and random chance. This yields random new traits. * A random trait might be useful to survival and reproduction, or it might be a hindrance. Maybe a trait that was once beneficial becomes a hindrance when the environment in which an organism lives shifts (i.e. higher Ph values of a pond of water will cause a shift in which bacteria will thrive, and which won't) Regardless of what you do, you can't stop mutation as long as cells are living and replicating. You don't control the appearance of traits directly as replication is basically a roll of the dice. (Technically, you can through genetic engineering, but we're talking about what happens outside the lab). Finally, viruses are arguably life. They are envelopes with genetic material. They aren't a hive mind following a conscious strategy. Their emergent behavior is dictated by the traits they happen to have, and a gazillion environmental factors. Nothing else. So, when we say "The virus is spreading", we are really saying "More people are infected and infecting others as well." a virus doesn't willfully jump between hosts. Lethality isn't a good trait either. The goal of a virus is to spread genetic material, killing its host is an inadvertent second order effect of replication. Viruses that are inadvertently too lethal will run out of hosts rather quickly. This SARS-Cov2 is a perfect storm because (a) of the properties of the virus itself - very contagious in 1-1 contact, low lethality, it's entirely new - and (b) because of environmental circumstances: 7.75 billion available hosts and globalisation / massive mobility. While we don't control mutation, the best case scenario is that quarantines, lockdown and eventual treatments will subdue that people keep spreading this strain. But replication might yield other traits and less harmful cousins of this virus might spread instead. (edit: lest we forget, homo sapiens sapiens is the net result of many mutations over the course of millions of years. So, beware of inadvertent value attribution!)
- drclau 7y ago
  As much as I appreciate the lengthy explanation, my concern was strictly related to the possibility that immunity gained by getting over the infection once, may be cancelled if/when the virus mutates (enough).
- brmgb 7y ago
  > The goal of a virus is to spread genetic material, killing its host is an inadvertent second order effect of replication. As an aside, I find it very amusing that you used this sentence after your paragraphes on emergent behavior and randomness. Finalism and anthropomorphism are really hard to avoid even when you clearly know virus have no goal.

by drclau 7y ago

umanwizard 7y ago

Flu is not a Coronavirus.

lotsofpulp 7y ago

Influenza is not a coronavirus: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orthomyxoviridae https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Orthomyxoviridae https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus

drclau 7y ago
You are right, I edited it out. The mutation remains a potential issue though.

deng 7y ago

So how do you fight mutation? By avoiding further spread of the virus. So really, this "danger of mutation" talk does not add anything to the discussion. In fact, it could equally well happen that the virus mutates to something less lethal.

drclau 7y ago
I disagree that the danger of mutation does not add anything to the conversation. If it is real, then it just shows how important it is to act now swiftly and to not rely on developing herd immunity. And you are right, mutations can go both ways.

CaptArmchair 7y ago

What we understand under "mutation" consists of 2 basic facts: * During replication of cells, DNA changes happen by accident and random chance. This yields random new traits. * A random trait might be useful to survival and reproduction, or it might be a hindrance. Maybe a trait that was once beneficial becomes a hindrance when the environment in which an organism lives shifts (i.e. higher Ph values of a pond of water will cause a shift in which bacteria will thrive, and which won't) Regardless of what you do, you can't stop mutation as long as cells are living and replicating. You don't control the appearance of traits directly as replication is basically a roll of the dice. (Technically, you can through genetic engineering, but we're talking about what happens outside the lab). Finally, viruses are arguably life. They are envelopes with genetic material. They aren't a hive mind following a conscious strategy. Their emergent behavior is dictated by the traits they happen to have, and a gazillion environmental factors. Nothing else. So, when we say "The virus is spreading", we are really saying "More people are infected and infecting others as well." a virus doesn't willfully jump between hosts. Lethality isn't a good trait either. The goal of a virus is to spread genetic material, killing its host is an inadvertent second order effect of replication. Viruses that are inadvertently too lethal will run out of hosts rather quickly. This SARS-Cov2 is a perfect storm because (a) of the properties of the virus itself - very contagious in 1-1 contact, low lethality, it's entirely new - and (b) because of environmental circumstances: 7.75 billion available hosts and globalisation / massive mobility. While we don't control mutation, the best case scenario is that quarantines, lockdown and eventual treatments will subdue that people keep spreading this strain. But replication might yield other traits and less harmful cousins of this virus might spread instead. (edit: lest we forget, homo sapiens sapiens is the net result of many mutations over the course of millions of years. So, beware of inadvertent value attribution!)

drclau 7y ago
As much as I appreciate the lengthy explanation, my concern was strictly related to the possibility that immunity gained by getting over the infection once, may be cancelled if/when the virus mutates (enough).
brmgb 7y ago
> The goal of a virus is to spread genetic material, killing its host is an inadvertent second order effect of replication. As an aside, I find it very amusing that you used this sentence after your paragraphes on emergent behavior and randomness. Finalism and anthropomorphism are really hard to avoid even when you clearly know virus have no goal.