3 ms·

I'm an Italian living in the UK, so I've been following both the stats and the debate in Italy (and elsewhere) very closely. My conclusion is that whoever think

I'm an Italian living in the UK, so I've been following both the stats and the debate in Italy (and elsewhere) very closely. My conclusion is that whoever thinks that this problem can be not stopped, but contained to a manageable level without very strict steps is in for a bad surprise. And, given the exponential nature of initial growth, the earlier these steps are adopted, the less harsh they need to be.

throwaway4787 7y ago
If that's any reassurance to you they are observing an inflection in Italy, potentially a sign that the lockdowns have their desired effects. We just need to hold on for a couple weeks before it curves back as in China. And that's discounting the ongoing trials for treatments that could solve this quicker than expected.
- danmaz74 7y ago
  That's my point - it took pretty harsh measures before we started getting any signs of the spread slowing down (and we'll need a few more days to verify that those signs are actually reliable).
tim333 7y ago
One hopeful thing from Italy is Vo Euganeo where they stopped it completely by testing everyone and separating those who had it. Nothing harsh, just a lot of testing https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-vo-euganeo-blanket-testing-veneto-luca-zaia-a9411201.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-... Now obviously there are scaling issues going from 3300 people to millions but I'm not sure it's impossible. S Korea also mostly controlled things by testing.
- turbojerry 7y ago
  Training the postal service to be able to take nasal swabs could scale this though you would need to robocall all those on the postal route what time to present themselves at the edge of their property. Starting with geographic locations where there have been clusters, then individual cases, then the general population. Also when an antibody test is available have them delivered by the postal service with instructions and URL for a video on how to administer it.

throwaway4787 7y ago

If that's any reassurance to you they are observing an inflection in Italy, potentially a sign that the lockdowns have their desired effects. We just need to hold on for a couple weeks before it curves back as in China. And that's discounting the ongoing trials for treatments that could solve this quicker than expected.

danmaz74 7y ago
That's my point - it took pretty harsh measures before we started getting any signs of the spread slowing down (and we'll need a few more days to verify that those signs are actually reliable).

tim333 7y ago

One hopeful thing from Italy is Vo Euganeo where they stopped it completely by testing everyone and separating those who had it. Nothing harsh, just a lot of testing https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-vo-euganeo-blanket-testing-veneto-luca-zaia-a9411201.html https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-... Now obviously there are scaling issues going from 3300 people to millions but I'm not sure it's impossible. S Korea also mostly controlled things by testing.

turbojerry 7y ago
Training the postal service to be able to take nasal swabs could scale this though you would need to robocall all those on the postal route what time to present themselves at the edge of their property. Starting with geographic locations where there have been clusters, then individual cases, then the general population. Also when an antibody test is available have them delivered by the postal service with instructions and URL for a video on how to administer it.