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I am not a credible source on this, but I believe if we achieve heard immunity the virus burns itself out because it will eventually not find new hosts to infec
by rosywoozlechan 7y ago
I am not a credible source on this, but I believe if we achieve heard immunity the virus burns itself out because it will eventually not find new hosts to infect. The virus has to keep finding new hosts, because otherwise the people infected will either get well and gain immunity or die. If enough people gain immunity then the virus can't spread anymore. Not everyone has to be become immune, just enough.
- mhandley 7y agoThe problem is that for this virus, "just enough" immune people is about 60% of the population. If 1% of that 60% die, as will happen with COVID19, that's a lot of deaths. The other alternative is social distancing, so you can reduce R0 (the number of people each infected person passes the virus on to) from something like 2.5-3 down to less than 1. Then it dies back by itself. This is what China and South Korea succeeded in doing.
- rosywoozlechan 7y agoYes, and I think we wouldn't need to wait until the coronavirus is completely dead to end complete social distancing, just until it becomes manageable to track and isolate just those still infected.
- guscost 7y ago> If 1% of that 60% die, as will happen with COVID19, that's a lot of deaths. I remain astounded by the level of certainty people can have about things which they barely understand at all.