4 ms·
It seems to me mathematically certain that it will. A week ago there were 170,000 cases, now there are 337,000. 337000*(337/170)^14.5 is roughly 7 billion. 1
by perl4ever 7y ago
It seems to me mathematically certain that it will.
A week ago there were 170,000 cases, now there are 337,000.
337000*(337/170)^14.5 is roughly 7 billion.
14.5 weeks from now is July 1st.
So either it diminishes or it's over by July, guaranteed.
- Wowfunhappy 7y agoEven if it diminishes, it won't be over—it'll come back in the fall, at which point we still won't have a vaccine. The Spanish Flu was worst the next winter...
- perl4ever 7y agoYeah, but that seems like a completely different situation. Wasn't the thing that happened then the dynamic where the sickest people were sent away from the front to the hospitals where they spread it, while the mild cases kept fighting? Also, I said "or".
- deleted 7y ago[deleted]
- alexanderhorl 7y agoThis is not taking into account the slowdown of spread due to containment measures.
- op03 7y agoAlso not taking into account in many parts of the world there is no such thing as Flu Season. And no one knows why.
- jwilk 7y agoCould you elaborate on that? Which parts?
- jobigoud 7y agoIt does. They are saying it won't continue at this rate for 15 weeks.
- perl4ever 7y agoEither it will A or B, where A is "slows down". How is that "not taking into account the slowdown"?
- mvanaltvorst 7y agoYou can't extrapolate the spread of viruses using an exponential function, you have to use a logistic function. Unfortunately, there isn't enough data to accurately fit a logistic function right now.
- jgalt212 7y agoTell that to the "shutdown the world people". The entire basis of this response is the exponential function.
- 2snakes 7y agoWith physical distancing, it may be exponential at first, but then taper off, like it did in Wuhan: https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3800632,00.html https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3800632...
- perl4ever 7y agoMy mathematical intuition may not be any good, but if you are saying it will be a sigmoid type curve, would doubling the time be plausible? But this is not in disagreement with my comment, since this would involve slowing down.