6 ms·

For some young people, it might ressemble to a "bad cold", and some people might even be completely asymptomatic, HOWEVER: - in France 50% of ICU patients are

by temac 7y ago

For some young people, it might ressemble to a "bad cold", and some people might even be completely asymptomatic, HOWEVER: - in France 50% of ICU patients are under 60 - this is really the wrong message to pass - for some people around 30 this more closely resemble to a very bad flu, with extra bonus symptoms - you are not getting very accurate numbers from Italy right now: only people dying in an hospital are counted, but some are dying at home (the symptoms are very fast evolving at the end, and the medical system is surcharged) Now I don't discuss that for probably at least 98% of contaminated, (and maybe even more), they will live. But this is certainly not a bad cold, by any fucking standard. For anybody. We don't halt the world for "bad colds". > As panic sets in, if you've got some cash to invest in the markets and a long time horizon to draw on it, this may be the money making opportunity of a generation. Most people have other preoccupations; but if you want to be seen as are seen the people who made a fortune during 9/11, by all means focus on that.

whatshisface 7y ago
>if you want to be seen as are seen the people who made a fortune during 9/11, by all means focus on that. Hopefully nobody looks poorly on the people who bought stock after 9/11, if it wasn't for them the market would never have gone back up.
- temac 7y ago
  I said "during", and "focus". Right out stating to the world "oh my god the world is overreacting, this is not such a big deal, and the best opportunity in your life to get rich for completely abstract reasons" during the greatest pandemic people in huge parts of the world have every lived, while literally a billion people are more or less locked down, and in the thread commenting "The Plague", is, I don't know how to put it precisely, but lets say at least: "weird". Some people are focusing on designing quickly mass-productible respirators, etc...
  - arcticbull 7y ago
    My dude, in a market, if there's no buyers, the price of equities becomes zero. If you want to help people preserve their net worth, what you want is more buyers. For the sellers, maybe they require the liquidity to pay for essentials? It doesn't matter. What matters is that if nobody is buying their shares are worthless. The people focusing on mass-producing ventilators are likely in China where the quarantine is in the process of being lifted as they have resolved the situation.
    - throwaway4787 7y ago
      Won't somebody think of equities and people's net worth?
  - arcticbull 7y ago
    Not to mention we have designs for ventilators. Companies have been making them for almost 100 years -- the first one was made in 1928. All we need to do is have the government tell the companies to do so. New designs are not required.
  - whatshisface 7y ago
    >Some people are focusing on designing quickly mass-productible respirators It only takes a couple seconds to buy an index-tracking ETF on your phone these days, I don't think this optimism is competing for time with ventilator production.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- throwaway4787 7y ago
  Oh no, not the market!
arcticbull 7y ago
> - in France 50% of ICU patients are under 60 Likely because there are more people under 60 than over 60 who are alive in general -- that's the shape of the population curve, and 50-59 are pretty heavily affected too. The CDC data is probably a good place to start looking [1] as it aligns with other world health data. Even if 60+ are affected 2X as much as 50-59, if there are 10X as many 50-59s in the population then that number doesn't mean much. We need to see the curves. > - for some people around 30 this more closely resemble to a very bad flu, with extra bonus symptoms For the vast majority, yes. > Most people have other preoccupations; but if you want to be seen as are seen the people who made a fortune during 9/11, by all means focus on that. No, I want to be seen as someone who made a fortune during 2008. In order for someone sell their equity positions, there must by definition be a buyer. People who are panic selling would be far worse off if there were no buyers on the other side of those transactions. The price would then be $0. Perhaps they need the liquidity more than I do? To pay for necessities? [1] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm
CriticalCathed 7y ago
>We don't halt the world for "bad colds". No we typically don't. But in this case we may have. The science is beginning to point to the fact that this virus is not particularly lethal, but it is extremely contagious with an R0 of at least 2. That's where the danger lies -- if this was the plague and more than half of people who got it died our response should be what China did or perhaps significantly stronger than that. But there may be better options that don't doom an entire generation to an economic depression and its manifold consequences (which in and of themselves, in the long run, could kill more people than this disease ever will.) in the case where the disease itself is not particularly lethal. The lockdown stuff that has economic consequences is speculated to need to last as long as 18 months! Even two months will cause untold damage that will have knock on effects for years, perhaps decades. We didn't even recover from 2007 before this latest downturn and the effects have rippled through our society touching everything, including suicides.
- temac 7y ago
  We don't usually call a disease that can easily evolve to pneumonie "a cold". And your focus on the supposedly low lethality is misplaced. Way more people need a stay in an hospital (sometimes short). This disease has the power to double (or even worse) the mortality rate of industrialized country during months or even years. That some people are even asymptomatic is not even a particularly good news IMO. It will just spread more because of that...
  - jeltz 7y ago
    I am personally 100% on board with halting the economy to fight COVID-19, but your are factually incorrect. The influenza is often called "a cold" and it does cause pneumonia. I have gotten pneumonia most likely from it and so have several people I know.
  - CriticalCathed 7y ago
    >We don't usually call a disease that can easily evolve to pneumonie "a cold". That's not true. Just not true. Colds and influenza regularly proceed to pnemonia or long lasting secondary lower respiratory infections, especially in the elderly but also in the young and healthy. >Way more people need a stay in an hospital (sometimes short). No that isn't clear at all. The current understanding is that because the infectivity is so high the proportion of cases that are serious come in many times faster than other respiratory viruses, and on TOP of other respiratory illnesses. >This disease as the power to double (or even worse) the mortality rate of industrialized country during months or even years. That's potentially true, but it isn't necessarily true. The excess mortality of this disease -- it is plausible and it can be sensibly argued, may not be that high. That is because it is killing, in general, those who are already ill. In Italy 88% of those who have died had one or more serious commodities such as heart disease, and that is on top of the fact that the median age of death is currently 81 (median case age 63.) An unknown but potentially high proportion of these deaths may have happened in the next two years anyway. So at the end of this the excess mortality rates may not be anywhere close to double amortized over two years, and consequently in two years we might see a drop in general mortality rates as a result (if this illness does end up infecting >50% of the population as some leaders have seen fit to say. >That some people are even asymptomatic is not even a particularly good news IMO. It will just spread more because of that... It is good news, definitely. Because it means that we don't need to worry about most people. We need to worry about those at high risk. We may be able to get through this by focusing on isolating, social distancing, and providing at home resource for those at significant risk. Such a strategy, if properly done, could even be used to allow the illness to travel through the otherwise not vulnerable population creating herd immunity which will allow those at risk to come out of quarantine earlier.
logicchains 7y ago
>in France 50% of ICU patients are under 60 This number is meaningless without knowing the age distribution of infections. If many more young people are infected than old people, we'd expect the absolute number of young people hospitalized to be higher, even if old people are way more likely to require hospitalization.
- blaser-waffle 7y ago
  Indeed. They could all be 45-to-55 year olds. Or patients with other co-morbid issues or who are immuno-compromised. Or of under-60 group most of them are homeless and haven't eaten much the past few months (plus sleeping rough in the winter).
seppel 7y ago
> in France 50% of ICU patients are under 60 But you have no idea how many are infected and will never see a hospital or even a doctor.
- arcticbull 7y ago
  ... or will never need to.
  - seppel 7y ago
    Yeah, exactly. With the current numbers where only a handful people are tested, it is really hard to see what is going on.

by temac 7y ago

whatshisface 7y ago

>if you want to be seen as are seen the people who made a fortune during 9/11, by all means focus on that. Hopefully nobody looks poorly on the people who bought stock after 9/11, if it wasn't for them the market would never have gone back up.

temac 7y ago
I said "during", and "focus". Right out stating to the world "oh my god the world is overreacting, this is not such a big deal, and the best opportunity in your life to get rich for completely abstract reasons" during the greatest pandemic people in huge parts of the world have every lived, while literally a billion people are more or less locked down, and in the thread commenting "The Plague", is, I don't know how to put it precisely, but lets say at least: "weird". Some people are focusing on designing quickly mass-productible respirators, etc...
- arcticbull 7y ago
  My dude, in a market, if there's no buyers, the price of equities becomes zero. If you want to help people preserve their net worth, what you want is more buyers. For the sellers, maybe they require the liquidity to pay for essentials? It doesn't matter. What matters is that if nobody is buying their shares are worthless. The people focusing on mass-producing ventilators are likely in China where the quarantine is in the process of being lifted as they have resolved the situation.
  - throwaway4787 7y ago
    Won't somebody think of equities and people's net worth?
- arcticbull 7y ago
  Not to mention we have designs for ventilators. Companies have been making them for almost 100 years -- the first one was made in 1928. All we need to do is have the government tell the companies to do so. New designs are not required.
- whatshisface 7y ago
  >Some people are focusing on designing quickly mass-productible respirators It only takes a couple seconds to buy an index-tracking ETF on your phone these days, I don't think this optimism is competing for time with ventilator production.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
throwaway4787 7y ago
Oh no, not the market!

arcticbull 7y ago

> - in France 50% of ICU patients are under 60 Likely because there are more people under 60 than over 60 who are alive in general -- that's the shape of the population curve, and 50-59 are pretty heavily affected too. The CDC data is probably a good place to start looking [1] as it aligns with other world health data. Even if 60+ are affected 2X as much as 50-59, if there are 10X as many 50-59s in the population then that number doesn't mean much. We need to see the curves. > - for some people around 30 this more closely resemble to a very bad flu, with extra bonus symptoms For the vast majority, yes. > Most people have other preoccupations; but if you want to be seen as are seen the people who made a fortune during 9/11, by all means focus on that. No, I want to be seen as someone who made a fortune during 2008. In order for someone sell their equity positions, there must by definition be a buyer. People who are panic selling would be far worse off if there were no buyers on the other side of those transactions. The price would then be $0. Perhaps they need the liquidity more than I do? To pay for necessities? [1] https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6912e2.htm

CriticalCathed 7y ago

>We don't halt the world for "bad colds". No we typically don't. But in this case we may have. The science is beginning to point to the fact that this virus is not particularly lethal, but it is extremely contagious with an R0 of at least 2. That's where the danger lies -- if this was the plague and more than half of people who got it died our response should be what China did or perhaps significantly stronger than that. But there may be better options that don't doom an entire generation to an economic depression and its manifold consequences (which in and of themselves, in the long run, could kill more people than this disease ever will.) in the case where the disease itself is not particularly lethal. The lockdown stuff that has economic consequences is speculated to need to last as long as 18 months! Even two months will cause untold damage that will have knock on effects for years, perhaps decades. We didn't even recover from 2007 before this latest downturn and the effects have rippled through our society touching everything, including suicides.

temac 7y ago
We don't usually call a disease that can easily evolve to pneumonie "a cold". And your focus on the supposedly low lethality is misplaced. Way more people need a stay in an hospital (sometimes short). This disease has the power to double (or even worse) the mortality rate of industrialized country during months or even years. That some people are even asymptomatic is not even a particularly good news IMO. It will just spread more because of that...
- jeltz 7y ago
  I am personally 100% on board with halting the economy to fight COVID-19, but your are factually incorrect. The influenza is often called "a cold" and it does cause pneumonia. I have gotten pneumonia most likely from it and so have several people I know.
- CriticalCathed 7y ago
  >We don't usually call a disease that can easily evolve to pneumonie "a cold". That's not true. Just not true. Colds and influenza regularly proceed to pnemonia or long lasting secondary lower respiratory infections, especially in the elderly but also in the young and healthy. >Way more people need a stay in an hospital (sometimes short). No that isn't clear at all. The current understanding is that because the infectivity is so high the proportion of cases that are serious come in many times faster than other respiratory viruses, and on TOP of other respiratory illnesses. >This disease as the power to double (or even worse) the mortality rate of industrialized country during months or even years. That's potentially true, but it isn't necessarily true. The excess mortality of this disease -- it is plausible and it can be sensibly argued, may not be that high. That is because it is killing, in general, those who are already ill. In Italy 88% of those who have died had one or more serious commodities such as heart disease, and that is on top of the fact that the median age of death is currently 81 (median case age 63.) An unknown but potentially high proportion of these deaths may have happened in the next two years anyway. So at the end of this the excess mortality rates may not be anywhere close to double amortized over two years, and consequently in two years we might see a drop in general mortality rates as a result (if this illness does end up infecting >50% of the population as some leaders have seen fit to say. >That some people are even asymptomatic is not even a particularly good news IMO. It will just spread more because of that... It is good news, definitely. Because it means that we don't need to worry about most people. We need to worry about those at high risk. We may be able to get through this by focusing on isolating, social distancing, and providing at home resource for those at significant risk. Such a strategy, if properly done, could even be used to allow the illness to travel through the otherwise not vulnerable population creating herd immunity which will allow those at risk to come out of quarantine earlier.

logicchains 7y ago

>in France 50% of ICU patients are under 60 This number is meaningless without knowing the age distribution of infections. If many more young people are infected than old people, we'd expect the absolute number of young people hospitalized to be higher, even if old people are way more likely to require hospitalization.

blaser-waffle 7y ago
Indeed. They could all be 45-to-55 year olds. Or patients with other co-morbid issues or who are immuno-compromised. Or of under-60 group most of them are homeless and haven't eaten much the past few months (plus sleeping rough in the winter).

seppel 7y ago

> in France 50% of ICU patients are under 60 But you have no idea how many are infected and will never see a hospital or even a doctor.

arcticbull 7y ago
... or will never need to.
- seppel 7y ago
  Yeah, exactly. With the current numbers where only a handful people are tested, it is really hard to see what is going on.