3 ms·
As you said that sample was older people, and we know the age is a very sensitive factor in the outcome. The estimates I have seen so far for the mortality is
by cm2187 7y ago
As you said that sample was older people, and we know the age is a very sensitive factor in the outcome.
The estimates I have seen so far for the mortality is 0.1-1%, and the estimates I have seen for the % of population to be infected is in the region of 40-60%. If these numbers are in any way reliable, that gives an expected death toll for Italy of around 20k to 400k. It's a big bid-offer, but is unlikely to add up to millions, unless the healthcare system completely collapses.
- Retric 7y agoThe average age was older, but the oldest age was younger. Very old people stop going on cruse ships as do people with significant heath issues. Aka the average 75 year old is in much worse heath than the average 75 year old on that cruse ship. For the oldest populations you can look at the Washington nursing home which quickly had 10+% of the total population die, and that number is still going up. Again, an outlier but useful for calibrating projections. Italy’s population is unusually old, and tend to be smokers both of which are already pushing them to the collapse of the healthcare system. Edit: Those low numbers are for early in an exponential growth phase it takes 2 to 9 weeks after infection to die. The disease is easily detected long before then. Thus after South Korea vastly slowed their rate of infections their case : death ratio been increasing from 0.5% on March 1at to 1.2% on March 20th. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_South_Korea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_S.... It’s still low because most of their infections are in young people with 26.93% of their cases being in 20-29 year olds.