3 ms·

Although NY is probably seeing an explosion in infections, this doubling is probably not a true growth in number of cases overnight, but instead representative

Although NY is probably seeing an explosion in infections, this doubling is probably not a true growth in number of cases overnight, but instead representative of massively increased testing in NY.

vkou 7y ago
That's true. But an actual doubling, measured by the number of people who can't breathe in a hospital currently takes 3-4 days.
- Taek 7y ago
  Is there a reliable link to the number of people on ventilators? I've only been able to find time series data for number of deaths. Which is helpful, but way too much of a lagging indiactor.
  - jacquesm 7y ago
    The 'critical' column on worldometers is a starting point. The general consensus is that the deaths are the most reliable, the criticals are somewhere in the middle and verified cases the least reliable due to lack of tests. But it is hard to fudge a death.
    - cma 7y ago
      For the US that critical column as been way out of date (just from what I knew of one hospital vs what it was reporting for the country several days after; I don't know if it is still far out of date).
    - ambicapter 7y ago
      > But it is hard to fudge a death. Not that I think the number of cases is grossly overstated, but Italy lists deaths from coronavirus if the patient dies for ANY reason while they are afflicted by the coronavirus. This would be the source of some "fudging" of the numbers.
    - Izkata 7y ago
      > But it is hard to fudge a death. One country (Germany, I think?) doesn't or wasn't including people who weren't tested before dying, so had a really low rate.
jacquesm 7y ago
Yes, absolutely. Even so, and even if there is a lot of noise in the data the trend is alarming to put it mildly. With earlier testing and a more transparent picture people may have taken the warnings more serious. Now they are partying like it is 1999 and the results of that will only become visible two weeks from now. By the time tests will be more common across other populous states the USA will likely be the #1 country in the world regarding case count and the delayed response means they'll peak a lot higher than China. This is far from over.
- teddyvangogh 7y ago
  I've seen several of your comments about coronavirus and you've been very critical of the US. While some skepticism is healthy, you seem to have a very dim view of what's going on in our country. Do i sense a hint of jealousy here? Meanwhile, in your country. "Confirmed Dutch Coronavirus Cases up 16% to 4,204, With 43 New Deaths" https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-03-22/confirmed-dutch-coronavirus-cases-up-16-to-4-204-with-43-new-deaths https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-03-22/confir... Dutch show ‘worrying’ disregard for corona hygiene rules: survey https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/03/dutch-show-worrying-disregard-for-corona-hygiene-rules-survey/ https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/03/dutch-show-worrying-di...
  - dang 7y ago
    Please don't.
shishy 7y ago
The rate of spreading is still >> rate of testing
- FPGAhacker 7y ago
  How do you know the rate of spread if you can’t test?
- bob33212 7y ago
  Increase of testing is 300% a day at times. For infections to increase greater than that you would need each infected individual to infected 3+ people a day. You may mean that the number of infected is still higher than the number of tests available
  - jacquesm 7y ago
    The only way to stop the spread is to have accurate testing and a population willing to abide by quarantine measures on a voluntary basis when tested positive as well as immediate tracing of contacts. Anything less than that and the spread will continue.
    - deleted 7y ago
      [deleted]
amiga_500 7y ago
I'm amazed they managed to scale testing.

Although NY is probably seeing an explosion in infections, this doubling is probably not a true growth in number of cases overnight, but instead representative of massively increased testing in NY.

vkou 7y ago

That's true. But an actual doubling, measured by the number of people who can't breathe in a hospital currently takes 3-4 days.

Taek 7y ago
Is there a reliable link to the number of people on ventilators? I've only been able to find time series data for number of deaths. Which is helpful, but way too much of a lagging indiactor.
- jacquesm 7y ago
  The 'critical' column on worldometers is a starting point. The general consensus is that the deaths are the most reliable, the criticals are somewhere in the middle and verified cases the least reliable due to lack of tests. But it is hard to fudge a death.
  - cma 7y ago
    For the US that critical column as been way out of date (just from what I knew of one hospital vs what it was reporting for the country several days after; I don't know if it is still far out of date).
  - ambicapter 7y ago
    > But it is hard to fudge a death. Not that I think the number of cases is grossly overstated, but Italy lists deaths from coronavirus if the patient dies for ANY reason while they are afflicted by the coronavirus. This would be the source of some "fudging" of the numbers.
  - Izkata 7y ago
    > But it is hard to fudge a death. One country (Germany, I think?) doesn't or wasn't including people who weren't tested before dying, so had a really low rate.

jacquesm 7y ago

Yes, absolutely. Even so, and even if there is a lot of noise in the data the trend is alarming to put it mildly. With earlier testing and a more transparent picture people may have taken the warnings more serious. Now they are partying like it is 1999 and the results of that will only become visible two weeks from now. By the time tests will be more common across other populous states the USA will likely be the #1 country in the world regarding case count and the delayed response means they'll peak a lot higher than China. This is far from over.

teddyvangogh 7y ago
I've seen several of your comments about coronavirus and you've been very critical of the US. While some skepticism is healthy, you seem to have a very dim view of what's going on in our country. Do i sense a hint of jealousy here? Meanwhile, in your country. "Confirmed Dutch Coronavirus Cases up 16% to 4,204, With 43 New Deaths" https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-03-22/confirmed-dutch-coronavirus-cases-up-16-to-4-204-with-43-new-deaths https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2020-03-22/confir... Dutch show ‘worrying’ disregard for corona hygiene rules: survey https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/03/dutch-show-worrying-disregard-for-corona-hygiene-rules-survey/ https://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2020/03/dutch-show-worrying-di...
- dang 7y ago
  Please don't.

shishy 7y ago

The rate of spreading is still >> rate of testing

FPGAhacker 7y ago
How do you know the rate of spread if you can’t test?
bob33212 7y ago
Increase of testing is 300% a day at times. For infections to increase greater than that you would need each infected individual to infected 3+ people a day. You may mean that the number of infected is still higher than the number of tests available
- jacquesm 7y ago
  The only way to stop the spread is to have accurate testing and a population willing to abide by quarantine measures on a voluntary basis when tested positive as well as immediate tracing of contacts. Anything less than that and the spread will continue.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]

amiga_500 7y ago

I'm amazed they managed to scale testing.