6 ms·

Doesn't this put into question the whole premise that China had defeated the Covid-19 and things are beginning to come to normal? The lockdown is in effect and

by yumraj 7y ago

Doesn't this put into question the whole premise that China had defeated the Covid-19 and things are beginning to come to normal? The lockdown is in effect and the moment it's taken down, we'll see a second wave. No?

lihaciudaniel 7y ago
You are right, but we did had a chance to contain it [1] but according to them [1] flattenthecurve.com
kelp 7y ago
Total not an expert in this area or really qualified to comment. But I think if they can get the known case load low enough, and continue aggressive testing and contact tracing, they may be able to lift the lockdown. Then aggressively isolate anyone who's come into contact with a known case. If that doesn't work, restart the lockdown. The big risk my be re-importing it back from other parts of the world who've been much less successful at containing this.
ENGNR 7y ago
Yes But... hospital and testing capabilities are building day by day, the quarantine is buying time It comes back, but the second time around we can isolate the right people due to ubiquitous testing, have more hospital beds and more knowledge on how to treat the sick, and are that much closer to a vaccine
pengaru 7y ago
At least China now knows they have brakes that work.
oiasdjfoiasd 7y ago
Perhaps, but it is very manageable now.
Leary 7y ago
China's relaxed posture is stricter than America's quarantines in NYC, Washington, and California.
glofish 7y ago
> The lockdown is in effect and the moment it's taken down, we'll see a second wave. No? Who knows, I think they have no idea and are just keeping things as they are to avoid having Wuhan in the news. Would make awful press to admit to any new cases in Wuhan. Are other major metropolises locked down similarly? Beijing, Shanghai? In general, is it credible that China has had no new cases other than those so called "imported from outside"? Sounds like propaganda to me.
- vkou 7y ago
  > I think they have no idea and are just keeping things as they are to avoid having Wuhan in the news. Would make awful press to admit to any new cases in Wuhan. Or they might actually care about people dying.
  - foota 7y ago
    Some parts and people of the Chinese government certainly care about people dying. The Chinese government in general however is currently interning and possibly worse millions of Uighur Muslims.
    - yorwba 7y ago
      If they didn't care, they could've just killed them all instead of spending effort on indoctrinating them. The Chinese government does understand proportionality. Wrongthink is countered with thought policing, not genocide.
    - vkou 7y ago
      And the American government in general killed half a million Iraqis, and imprisons millions of African Americans, and, and, and - yet... Those facts are completely irrelevant to the conversation about what the government's motives for its handling of COVID-19 are. Most of us restrain ourselves from bringing them up in every discussion of American domestic policy. It's off-topic, it invites a bunch of whataboutism, and it baits nationalistic arguments. It's more on-topic in threads on policing, surveillance, civil rights struggles, islamophobia, etc.
Reedx 7y ago
Dr. Fauci is saying it's likely to have flu-like seasonality. Though it's not known for sure yet. And current expert consensus is in line with that, putting the odds at 73% for a 2nd wave in the fall: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/infectious-disease-experts-dont-know-how-bad-the-coronavirus-is-going-to-get-either/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/infectious-disease-expe...
- asveikau 7y ago
  I thought there were cases in the southern hemisphere where it's currently summer.
  - dboreham 7y ago
    There are flu cases in summer, just not as many as winter. Without a control country to compare we don't know if Australia would have many more cases were it winter there.
    - asveikau 7y ago
      Wikipedia says there are more than 3,000 cases in south america. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_South_America https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in...
  - alkonaut 7y ago
    Layman relaying what I read in an ElI5: R0 goes down with rising temps and humidity. Covid has a pretty high R0 to begin with, so unlike flu and colds that almost disappear in summer, covid will most likely be slightly less contagious than in winter (people being more outdoors helps too). That’s not enough to make it not spread in warm countries now, but it will likely help some bad areas in colder climates such as New York or Germany.
  - jsjohnst 7y ago
    Have you not heard of someone having the flu in the summer? It’s possible, just less common than during winter months. We suspect the same for Covid-19.
loeg 7y ago
The significance of China flattening the curve was never that Covid was defeated. This thing will have a much longer impact than that. It was that their health infrastructure could keep up with ICU demand, i.e., they have a death rate trending towards 0.5-1% instead of 4-6%. Until there is a vaccine or the entire remaining population develops some immunity, the disease is still around and lockdown will have to be lifted gradually to keep the number of new cases low enough that the cases that need intense care can get it.
op03 7y ago
So far South Korea and Japan aren't showing any second wave and they have probably more travel/biz links with Wuhan than anyone else...so fingers crossed. Keep an eye on them.
- dredmorbius 7y ago
  Slight upticks in China ex-Hubei and SG cases in the past week. Japan still has a growth rate that's doubling roughly monthly. Better, and a much flattened curve, but still concerning.
harmmonica 7y ago
It has been, I think, 5 days since the last case in Wuhan (guess there's a debate about a case that may have occurred yesterday/today, but jury's out on that one based on media reports). That said, if the 5 days is true, then you wouldn't expect them to remove the lockdown until they know they've starved the virus for the incubation period (I think it's generally accepted that 14 days is the number, but that there are potentially longer outliers). By that logic, you wouldn't expect them to lift the lockdown materially for another 9 days and even then you would expect them to only gradually lift restrictions while they ensure no new cases emerge. I'm sure there are media outlets saying China has "defeated" the virus, but from what I've read they've contained it, kept new infections to a minimum (attributing all at this point to imported cases) and are still on varying degrees of lockdown. And this is hardly reputable, but I follow people on Instagram who are in Shanghai and folks there still talk as if things are far from normal... There are still restrictions on what you can do, where you can go.
- Jaxkr 7y ago
  They stopped testing. There are no new cases because they stopped testing.
  - brogrammernot 7y ago
    Considering they just released they had 60 positive tests, they’re still testing.
  - rfoo 7y ago
    They didn't stop testing. However the "zero new cases" reports are misleading. Various reports showed that there are a few positive testing results in Wuhan each day, but because they are asymptomatic, they are not being considered as "case". On the positive side, it shows that Wuhan now have enough testing capacity to test almost every single one who walked in a hospital even they are seeking medical help for completely different issues.
    - Jaxkr 7y ago
      I stand corrected.
fg6hr 7y ago
Why would a lockdown help? The virus will live in some animals and humans and once the lockdown is over, the spread will resume.

by yumraj 7y ago

lihaciudaniel 7y ago

You are right, but we did had a chance to contain it [1] but according to them [1] flattenthecurve.com

kelp 7y ago

Total not an expert in this area or really qualified to comment. But I think if they can get the known case load low enough, and continue aggressive testing and contact tracing, they may be able to lift the lockdown. Then aggressively isolate anyone who's come into contact with a known case. If that doesn't work, restart the lockdown. The big risk my be re-importing it back from other parts of the world who've been much less successful at containing this.

ENGNR 7y ago

Yes But... hospital and testing capabilities are building day by day, the quarantine is buying time It comes back, but the second time around we can isolate the right people due to ubiquitous testing, have more hospital beds and more knowledge on how to treat the sick, and are that much closer to a vaccine

pengaru 7y ago

At least China now knows they have brakes that work.

oiasdjfoiasd 7y ago

Perhaps, but it is very manageable now.

Leary 7y ago

China's relaxed posture is stricter than America's quarantines in NYC, Washington, and California.

glofish 7y ago

> The lockdown is in effect and the moment it's taken down, we'll see a second wave. No? Who knows, I think they have no idea and are just keeping things as they are to avoid having Wuhan in the news. Would make awful press to admit to any new cases in Wuhan. Are other major metropolises locked down similarly? Beijing, Shanghai? In general, is it credible that China has had no new cases other than those so called "imported from outside"? Sounds like propaganda to me.

vkou 7y ago
> I think they have no idea and are just keeping things as they are to avoid having Wuhan in the news. Would make awful press to admit to any new cases in Wuhan. Or they might actually care about people dying.
- foota 7y ago
  Some parts and people of the Chinese government certainly care about people dying. The Chinese government in general however is currently interning and possibly worse millions of Uighur Muslims.
  - yorwba 7y ago
    If they didn't care, they could've just killed them all instead of spending effort on indoctrinating them. The Chinese government does understand proportionality. Wrongthink is countered with thought policing, not genocide.
  - vkou 7y ago
    And the American government in general killed half a million Iraqis, and imprisons millions of African Americans, and, and, and - yet... Those facts are completely irrelevant to the conversation about what the government's motives for its handling of COVID-19 are. Most of us restrain ourselves from bringing them up in every discussion of American domestic policy. It's off-topic, it invites a bunch of whataboutism, and it baits nationalistic arguments. It's more on-topic in threads on policing, surveillance, civil rights struggles, islamophobia, etc.

Reedx 7y ago

Dr. Fauci is saying it's likely to have flu-like seasonality. Though it's not known for sure yet. And current expert consensus is in line with that, putting the odds at 73% for a 2nd wave in the fall: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/infectious-disease-experts-dont-know-how-bad-the-coronavirus-is-going-to-get-either/ https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/infectious-disease-expe...

asveikau 7y ago
I thought there were cases in the southern hemisphere where it's currently summer.
- dboreham 7y ago
  There are flu cases in summer, just not as many as winter. Without a control country to compare we don't know if Australia would have many more cases were it winter there.
  - asveikau 7y ago
    Wikipedia says there are more than 3,000 cases in south america. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_South_America https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in...
- alkonaut 7y ago
  Layman relaying what I read in an ElI5: R0 goes down with rising temps and humidity. Covid has a pretty high R0 to begin with, so unlike flu and colds that almost disappear in summer, covid will most likely be slightly less contagious than in winter (people being more outdoors helps too). That’s not enough to make it not spread in warm countries now, but it will likely help some bad areas in colder climates such as New York or Germany.
- jsjohnst 7y ago
  Have you not heard of someone having the flu in the summer? It’s possible, just less common than during winter months. We suspect the same for Covid-19.

loeg 7y ago

The significance of China flattening the curve was never that Covid was defeated. This thing will have a much longer impact than that. It was that their health infrastructure could keep up with ICU demand, i.e., they have a death rate trending towards 0.5-1% instead of 4-6%. Until there is a vaccine or the entire remaining population develops some immunity, the disease is still around and lockdown will have to be lifted gradually to keep the number of new cases low enough that the cases that need intense care can get it.

op03 7y ago

So far South Korea and Japan aren't showing any second wave and they have probably more travel/biz links with Wuhan than anyone else...so fingers crossed. Keep an eye on them.

dredmorbius 7y ago
Slight upticks in China ex-Hubei and SG cases in the past week. Japan still has a growth rate that's doubling roughly monthly. Better, and a much flattened curve, but still concerning.

harmmonica 7y ago

It has been, I think, 5 days since the last case in Wuhan (guess there's a debate about a case that may have occurred yesterday/today, but jury's out on that one based on media reports). That said, if the 5 days is true, then you wouldn't expect them to remove the lockdown until they know they've starved the virus for the incubation period (I think it's generally accepted that 14 days is the number, but that there are potentially longer outliers). By that logic, you wouldn't expect them to lift the lockdown materially for another 9 days and even then you would expect them to only gradually lift restrictions while they ensure no new cases emerge. I'm sure there are media outlets saying China has "defeated" the virus, but from what I've read they've contained it, kept new infections to a minimum (attributing all at this point to imported cases) and are still on varying degrees of lockdown. And this is hardly reputable, but I follow people on Instagram who are in Shanghai and folks there still talk as if things are far from normal... There are still restrictions on what you can do, where you can go.

Jaxkr 7y ago
They stopped testing. There are no new cases because they stopped testing.
- brogrammernot 7y ago
  Considering they just released they had 60 positive tests, they’re still testing.
- rfoo 7y ago
  They didn't stop testing. However the "zero new cases" reports are misleading. Various reports showed that there are a few positive testing results in Wuhan each day, but because they are asymptomatic, they are not being considered as "case". On the positive side, it shows that Wuhan now have enough testing capacity to test almost every single one who walked in a hospital even they are seeking medical help for completely different issues.
  - Jaxkr 7y ago
    I stand corrected.

fg6hr 7y ago

Why would a lockdown help? The virus will live in some animals and humans and once the lockdown is over, the spread will resume.