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In many cases, people aren't available; they're sheltering at home, social distancing. Even for those who can work remotely, the disruption to routine is going
by maxander 7y ago
In many cases, people aren't available; they're sheltering at home, social distancing. Even for those who can work remotely, the disruption to routine is going to reduce productivity. And worse, many assets are going to be destroyed- for instance, restaurants that go under while distancing is taking place are just going to be gone, and while the brute equipment can be reused later, the "organizational capital" (the habits and knowledge of how to run that particular business in that particular context most effectively) vanishes.
Various governmental interventions (stimulus, rent freezes, etc) can ameliorate this, but I'm not confident (and the financial sector isn't confident, I think) that the government is presently competent enough to get too much mileage out of implementing these; stimulus needs to be done correctly and promptly to have much effect.
If you're in (or your customers are in) an industry that can hunker down and "weather the downturn," the eventual return to normal will be priced in and you'll likely be fine. If you're in (or ditto) an industry that will suffer attrition, the uncertainty will be priced in and you're liable to suffer. Give some thought as to where you stand.
- fxtentacle 7y agoRestaurants won't have to go away if you freeze the rent and pay the previous employees a replacement income. In other words, providing a stimulus package paid to the right people can prevent it.