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Economic contraction would lead to decreased lifespan. There's definitely a math problem here which optimizes for saved human life. Consider that a 100% economi
by caseymarquis 7y ago
Economic contraction would lead to decreased lifespan. There's definitely a math problem here which optimizes for saved human life. Consider that a 100% economic contraction would result in the majority of humanity dying. 10% likely means some number of deaths among the poor (I've been the poor, there's not a lot of wiggle room when you're barely scraping by deciding between heat or food in the winter).
It's not that we can't lock down and accept economic contraction, it's that we should do the math before we commit to that path. Lockdown may be the clear winner.
- untog 7y agoEconomic contraction can be countered by government spending in the short term. For instance in the UK the government has pledged to pay up to 80% of unemployed workers wages during this crisis. There will certainly be a hole to dig out of later, but it means no binary choice between economic contraction and people dying.
- caseymarquis 7y agoAgreed.