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>>Most infections occur inside the home. Many German cities with high rents have very high number of shared apartments. If you don't have the virus you cannot

>>Most infections occur inside the home. Many German cities with high rents have very high number of shared apartments. If you don't have the virus you cannot infect wife. Now if you go out and come back home you might pick up something from outside. >>We see in Italy that a total lockdown does not work. Italy closed the barn door too late

vlogxx 7y ago
The comment you reply to mentions shared apartments, like students use. In big expensive cities many non-students are also in this situation. So it is not about "you cannot infect wife [sic]". It is about an escape hatch of being outside alone so these shared apartments don't turn into the Diamond Princess. You cannot infect yourself outside if you keep a distance of 5m to everyone. In Germany, the streets are empty enough to allow that without a curfew. You also very unlikely to infect yourself if you go to a hotel without air conditioning, clean the room yourself, don't go to breakfast and just use the room as an isolated office and keep a frigging distance to everyone.
- marcinzm 7y ago
  >It is about an escape hatch of being outside alone so these shared apartments don't turn into the Diamond Princess. A contained infection is fine, it's uncontained infection which aren't. Thus this whole thing. >You cannot infect yourself outside if you keep a distance of 5m to everyone Sure you can, careful on what you touch, virus lives for three days on steel and plastic. >You also very unlikely to infect yourself if you go to a hotel without air conditioning, clean the room yourself, don't go to breakfast and just use the room as an isolated office and keep a frigging distance to everyone. If you know your flat mate is sick then you're probably already sick. There's a multi day incubation period without symptoms and this strain seems decently infectious. So going to a hotel will just expose other people to YOU.
  - qnu100 7y ago
    Virologist Drosten, co-discoverer of the first SARS virus, said that there is no scientific data that curfews are effective. Banning groups obviously is effective. > Sure you can, careful on what you touch, virus lives for three days on steel and plastic. This route of transmission is also highly disputed among virologists. We should have data by now that supermarket workers have a higher rate of infection. I don't think they have. Some people have self control, don't touch anything apart from their bicycle, don't touch their face etc. It is amusing to see politicians clamoring for a curfew while in close contact with other people and constantly rubbing their faces. So perhaps they extrapolate from their own stupidity.
- Retric 7y ago
  5m is not total protection. You can easily get infected like that, the difference is rates of new infection not personal risks. Something that’s 75% effective would get reproduction factor well below 1. Social distancing + hand washing etc is likely between 30% and 75% effective.
  - qnu100 7y ago
    Virologist Drosten, co-discoverer of the first SARS virus, thinks that activities like jogging alone are harmless.
- admax88q 7y ago
  > You cannot infect yourself outside if you keep a distance of 5m to everyone. Depends what you touch while you're out. > You also very unlikely to infect yourself if you go to a hotel without air conditioning, clean the room yourself, don't go to breakfast and just use the room as an isolated office and keep a frigging distance to everyone. Sure but if everyone starts going to hotels, you're putting the staff there at risk. I don't think anybody disagrees that if you isolate yourself you won't get sick. But if a bunch of people from these shared apartments start fanning out to try to get away from eachother, some of them will already be carriers and will spread the disease further. People have to stop moving around.
  - qnu100 7y ago
    You have to move around responsibly, which most Germans (who have an innate tendency for social distance) are already doing. Except for the hypersocial animals like polititians, who cannot stand being alone for one second.
  - simion314 7y ago
    >Depends what you touch while you're out. So try to not touch too many things and wash your hands as often as possible and don't touch your face.
Retric 7y ago
Italy still has a very low rate of infections. The risk is millions of dead not low thousands.
- cm2187 7y ago
  In absence of large scale testing, how do you know that?
  - Retric 7y ago
    Diamond Princess had full scale population testing and while older a fairly healthy and non geriatric population. 712 infected, and 9 dead which might increase. The ratio of asymptotic cases was under 50%, but could slightly exceed that in a younger population. Further these people received excellent medical care unlikely to be replicated should most of the population become infected. So, while no country has great population level testing making calibration complex, you don’t need very narrow error bars to extrapolate the difference between 3,000 dead and an absolute worst case in Italy of up to 3,000,000 dead. PS: To be clear 5% of the total population dying is extremely unlikely to happen.
    - cm2187 7y ago
      As you said that sample was older people, and we know the age is a very sensitive factor in the outcome. The estimates I have seen so far for the mortality is 0.1-1%, and the estimates I have seen for the % of population to be infected is in the region of 40-60%. If these numbers are in any way reliable, that gives an expected death toll for Italy of around 20k to 400k. It's a big bid-offer, but is unlikely to add up to millions, unless the healthcare system completely collapses.
      - Retric 7y ago
        The average age was older, but the oldest age was younger. Very old people stop going on cruse ships as do people with significant heath issues. Aka the average 75 year old is in much worse heath than the average 75 year old on that cruse ship. For the oldest populations you can look at the Washington nursing home which quickly had 10+% of the total population die, and that number is still going up. Again, an outlier but useful for calibrating projections. Italy’s population is unusually old, and tend to be smokers both of which are already pushing them to the collapse of the healthcare system. Edit: Those low numbers are for early in an exponential growth phase it takes 2 to 9 weeks after infection to die. The disease is easily detected long before then. Thus after South Korea vastly slowed their rate of infections their case : death ratio been increasing from 0.5% on March 1at to 1.2% on March 20th. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_South_Korea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_S.... It’s still low because most of their infections are in young people with 26.93% of their cases being in 20-29 year olds.

vlogxx 7y ago

The comment you reply to mentions shared apartments, like students use. In big expensive cities many non-students are also in this situation. So it is not about "you cannot infect wife [sic]". It is about an escape hatch of being outside alone so these shared apartments don't turn into the Diamond Princess. You cannot infect yourself outside if you keep a distance of 5m to everyone. In Germany, the streets are empty enough to allow that without a curfew. You also very unlikely to infect yourself if you go to a hotel without air conditioning, clean the room yourself, don't go to breakfast and just use the room as an isolated office and keep a frigging distance to everyone.

marcinzm 7y ago
>It is about an escape hatch of being outside alone so these shared apartments don't turn into the Diamond Princess. A contained infection is fine, it's uncontained infection which aren't. Thus this whole thing. >You cannot infect yourself outside if you keep a distance of 5m to everyone Sure you can, careful on what you touch, virus lives for three days on steel and plastic. >You also very unlikely to infect yourself if you go to a hotel without air conditioning, clean the room yourself, don't go to breakfast and just use the room as an isolated office and keep a frigging distance to everyone. If you know your flat mate is sick then you're probably already sick. There's a multi day incubation period without symptoms and this strain seems decently infectious. So going to a hotel will just expose other people to YOU.
- qnu100 7y ago
  Virologist Drosten, co-discoverer of the first SARS virus, said that there is no scientific data that curfews are effective. Banning groups obviously is effective. > Sure you can, careful on what you touch, virus lives for three days on steel and plastic. This route of transmission is also highly disputed among virologists. We should have data by now that supermarket workers have a higher rate of infection. I don't think they have. Some people have self control, don't touch anything apart from their bicycle, don't touch their face etc. It is amusing to see politicians clamoring for a curfew while in close contact with other people and constantly rubbing their faces. So perhaps they extrapolate from their own stupidity.
Retric 7y ago
5m is not total protection. You can easily get infected like that, the difference is rates of new infection not personal risks. Something that’s 75% effective would get reproduction factor well below 1. Social distancing + hand washing etc is likely between 30% and 75% effective.
- qnu100 7y ago
  Virologist Drosten, co-discoverer of the first SARS virus, thinks that activities like jogging alone are harmless.
admax88q 7y ago
> You cannot infect yourself outside if you keep a distance of 5m to everyone. Depends what you touch while you're out. > You also very unlikely to infect yourself if you go to a hotel without air conditioning, clean the room yourself, don't go to breakfast and just use the room as an isolated office and keep a frigging distance to everyone. Sure but if everyone starts going to hotels, you're putting the staff there at risk. I don't think anybody disagrees that if you isolate yourself you won't get sick. But if a bunch of people from these shared apartments start fanning out to try to get away from eachother, some of them will already be carriers and will spread the disease further. People have to stop moving around.
- qnu100 7y ago
  You have to move around responsibly, which most Germans (who have an innate tendency for social distance) are already doing. Except for the hypersocial animals like polititians, who cannot stand being alone for one second.
- simion314 7y ago
  >Depends what you touch while you're out. So try to not touch too many things and wash your hands as often as possible and don't touch your face.

Retric 7y ago

Italy still has a very low rate of infections. The risk is millions of dead not low thousands.

cm2187 7y ago
In absence of large scale testing, how do you know that?
- Retric 7y ago
  Diamond Princess had full scale population testing and while older a fairly healthy and non geriatric population. 712 infected, and 9 dead which might increase. The ratio of asymptotic cases was under 50%, but could slightly exceed that in a younger population. Further these people received excellent medical care unlikely to be replicated should most of the population become infected. So, while no country has great population level testing making calibration complex, you don’t need very narrow error bars to extrapolate the difference between 3,000 dead and an absolute worst case in Italy of up to 3,000,000 dead. PS: To be clear 5% of the total population dying is extremely unlikely to happen.
  - cm2187 7y ago
    As you said that sample was older people, and we know the age is a very sensitive factor in the outcome. The estimates I have seen so far for the mortality is 0.1-1%, and the estimates I have seen for the % of population to be infected is in the region of 40-60%. If these numbers are in any way reliable, that gives an expected death toll for Italy of around 20k to 400k. It's a big bid-offer, but is unlikely to add up to millions, unless the healthcare system completely collapses.
    - Retric 7y ago
      The average age was older, but the oldest age was younger. Very old people stop going on cruse ships as do people with significant heath issues. Aka the average 75 year old is in much worse heath than the average 75 year old on that cruse ship. For the oldest populations you can look at the Washington nursing home which quickly had 10+% of the total population die, and that number is still going up. Again, an outlier but useful for calibrating projections. Italy’s population is unusually old, and tend to be smokers both of which are already pushing them to the collapse of the healthcare system. Edit: Those low numbers are for early in an exponential growth phase it takes 2 to 9 weeks after infection to die. The disease is easily detected long before then. Thus after South Korea vastly slowed their rate of infections their case : death ratio been increasing from 0.5% on March 1at to 1.2% on March 20th. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_South_Korea https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_S.... It’s still low because most of their infections are in young people with 26.93% of their cases being in 20-29 year olds.