He made that prediction on 19th, three days ago. Either he isn't following the numbers or he predicts a total shutdown and a cure. Maybe if he's a genius it's

He made that prediction on 19th, three days ago. Either he isn't following the numbers or he predicts a total shutdown and a cure. Maybe if he's a genius it's possible for him to make "meta-level" predictions e.g. "research for cure is accelerated by 100% for every mortality %", and thus actually the epidemic severity would always be balanced by a faster cure. In any case, the prediction contradicts his views that the shutdown is unnecessary.