Yes exactly. The market may resemble a random walk in the short term, over days, but it is driven by economic forecasts and company results in the long term (th

Yes exactly. The market may resemble a random walk in the short term, over days, but it is driven by economic forecasts and company results in the long term (the long term is also more than the 3 year timing given). Absent any of that information, obviously you can’t guess how the stocks will move (i.e. time the market), except that they will in aggregate move gradually upwards in price as all currencies aim for inflation. With that information, sometimes the way the market will move over a time period of years is clear. Clearly the consensus moves in a panicky way with the latest news, and constantly undershoots or overshoots real returns, but it is based on real returns in the long run.