5 ms·

America needs an immediate five-week national lockdown to defeat coronavirus

31 points by smacktoward 7y ago

xwowsersx 7y ago
Someone I know made the assertion that the disease is "topping out" and based this on the fact that "testing is increasing faster than positive results". I am highly skeptical of this claim simply based on the fact that literally no expert is making this claim, but I don't know how to dismantle this assertion. Anyone have stats/numbers that would refute this (seemingly) bogus claim?
- steve_adams_86 7y ago
  We are testing a more diverse group as we test more. Before we were testing people we suspected to be sick. Our data has been extremely biased all along in most countries.
  - xwowsersx 7y ago
    That's a very good point, thank you.
- oli5679 7y ago
  https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 Plot confirmed cases and deaths vs. date on a log scale for countries with more than N cases/deaths. You'll see USA following similar pattern to Italy, and other European countries, without significant slowdown of exponential trend yet.
  - xwowsersx 7y ago
    Thanks. Is this the right dataset to look at https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_19-covid-Confirmed.csv https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_... ?
    - xwowsersx 7y ago
      I guess I need the confirmed cases csv as well?
caseymarquis 7y ago
It seems probable that the inability to close down critical infrastructure (ie medical, utilities, food) and the exceptional contageousness of the virus will likely thwart any attempt to eliminate it via isolation. It lowers the burden on the medical system for sure, but it just delays the eventual spread. Consider that 50 to 95% of Native Americans died from infectious disease after Europeans arrived, while the fastest method of transport at the time was a horse and most food was locally grown. It's commonly stated that the average US citizen lives paycheck to paycheck, and it's fair to guess a large fraction of those would be laid off during this period. If you're optimizing for strain on the healthcare system, then I suppose a 5 week lockdown makes sense. That said, unless a plan addresses providing for the millions of people who can no longer afford food and rent during said lockdown, it seems likely we'd encounter an entirely different set of problems. I don't know what the effect of a 10% contraction in GDP would be, but I think that's what you would need to weigh slowing the spread of the virus against. I'd be interested if someone knowledgable could do the math on lost years of life from 14% of the elderly dying vs such a severe economic contraction.
- downerending 7y ago
  This is insightful, but one missing point is that we actually can provide necessary support to allow people to remain in place for the duration. It wouldn't be without discomfort, but we don't need to cast anyone adrift.
  - caseymarquis 7y ago
    In which case, we just need to make those details an equal part of the plan.
- untog 7y ago
  > I'd be interested if someone knowledgable could do the math on lost years of life from 14% of the elderly dying vs such a severe economic contraction. That's not a math problem. There is no equation for comparing the death of a human being with economic contraction. There are some really fundamental questions here that I don't think we're going to answer soon. It's making me wonder about the nature of the US itself, with authority scattered between DC, states and counties. With a priority (arguably an obsession) with free market economics over all else. When the dust settles the country is going to need to ask a lot of questions about how it operates. Failure to do so (and don't get me wrong, I suspect we will fail) just means the next time a pandemic like this comes around it's going to devastate the country even more.
canada_dry 7y ago
Up next: suspending trading on all stock markets/exchanges during the lockdown? Perhaps I'm being wildly naive, but this would seem to be the next obvious step. Hopefully then the administration would turn ~90% of it's focus on the health/welfare of the population. Finally, the remaining ~10% of effort should be on brainstorming approaches/protocols to restore the financial systems once the national quarantine is lifted.
- orasis 7y ago
  This would mean that companies couldn’t raise capital for five weeks and individuals wouldn’t be able to liquidate stocks for necessary cash. Not a great idea.
- executive 7y ago
  how to exercise options?
magwa101 7y ago
Finally, the plain truth.

31 points by smacktoward 7y ago

Someone I know made the assertion that the disease is "topping out" and based this on the fact that "testing is increasing faster than positive results". I am highly skeptical of this claim simply based on the fact that literally no expert is making this claim, but I don't know how to dismantle this assertion. Anyone have stats/numbers that would refute this (seemingly) bogus claim?

steve_adams_86 7y ago
We are testing a more diverse group as we test more. Before we were testing people we suspected to be sick. Our data has been extremely biased all along in most countries.
- xwowsersx 7y ago
  That's a very good point, thank you.
oli5679 7y ago
https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19 Plot confirmed cases and deaths vs. date on a log scale for countries with more than N cases/deaths. You'll see USA following similar pattern to Italy, and other European countries, without significant slowdown of exponential trend yet.
- xwowsersx 7y ago
  Thanks. Is this the right dataset to look at https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_covid_19_data/csse_covid_19_time_series/time_series_19-covid-Confirmed.csv https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19/blob/master/csse_... ?
  - xwowsersx 7y ago
    I guess I need the confirmed cases csv as well?

caseymarquis 7y ago

It seems probable that the inability to close down critical infrastructure (ie medical, utilities, food) and the exceptional contageousness of the virus will likely thwart any attempt to eliminate it via isolation. It lowers the burden on the medical system for sure, but it just delays the eventual spread. Consider that 50 to 95% of Native Americans died from infectious disease after Europeans arrived, while the fastest method of transport at the time was a horse and most food was locally grown. It's commonly stated that the average US citizen lives paycheck to paycheck, and it's fair to guess a large fraction of those would be laid off during this period. If you're optimizing for strain on the healthcare system, then I suppose a 5 week lockdown makes sense. That said, unless a plan addresses providing for the millions of people who can no longer afford food and rent during said lockdown, it seems likely we'd encounter an entirely different set of problems. I don't know what the effect of a 10% contraction in GDP would be, but I think that's what you would need to weigh slowing the spread of the virus against. I'd be interested if someone knowledgable could do the math on lost years of life from 14% of the elderly dying vs such a severe economic contraction.

downerending 7y ago
This is insightful, but one missing point is that we actually can provide necessary support to allow people to remain in place for the duration. It wouldn't be without discomfort, but we don't need to cast anyone adrift.
- caseymarquis 7y ago
  In which case, we just need to make those details an equal part of the plan.
untog 7y ago
> I'd be interested if someone knowledgable could do the math on lost years of life from 14% of the elderly dying vs such a severe economic contraction. That's not a math problem. There is no equation for comparing the death of a human being with economic contraction. There are some really fundamental questions here that I don't think we're going to answer soon. It's making me wonder about the nature of the US itself, with authority scattered between DC, states and counties. With a priority (arguably an obsession) with free market economics over all else. When the dust settles the country is going to need to ask a lot of questions about how it operates. Failure to do so (and don't get me wrong, I suspect we will fail) just means the next time a pandemic like this comes around it's going to devastate the country even more.

canada_dry 7y ago

Up next: suspending trading on all stock markets/exchanges during the lockdown? Perhaps I'm being wildly naive, but this would seem to be the next obvious step. Hopefully then the administration would turn ~90% of it's focus on the health/welfare of the population. Finally, the remaining ~10% of effort should be on brainstorming approaches/protocols to restore the financial systems once the national quarantine is lifted.

orasis 7y ago
This would mean that companies couldn’t raise capital for five weeks and individuals wouldn’t be able to liquidate stocks for necessary cash. Not a great idea.
executive 7y ago
how to exercise options?

magwa101 7y ago

Finally, the plain truth.