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This is a humanitarian crisis. We may weather the storm at home, but this virus knows no boarders and will decimate populations in the most vulnerable corners
by alex_young 7y ago
This is a humanitarian crisis. We may weather the storm at home, but this virus knows no boarders and will decimate populations in the most vulnerable corners of the world until we develop and internationally deploy a cure.
The rhetoric of war time may become a stark reality if this continues unabated on our planet.
- lobotryas 7y agoSp you typed all that, but what exactly are you actually saying? It feels like you wrote a message in code.
- tinus_hn 7y agoEven if everyone gets infected a virus with a 2% fatality rate will hardly decimate populations. It’s not very useful to overdramatize.
- enchiridion 7y agoAround 15% require hospitalization. What do you think happens if they can't get it? My assumption is they die. Decimation (1/10 die) is accurate, if not an underestimation. Edit: you also have to take the infection rate into account. Also indirect deaths. My point stands
- lodovic 7y agoThat would only happen if 100% of the population becomes infected at once. But when 60% has had the virus there will be so much immunity that the virus won't be able to spread anymore. So 10% mortality may happen in countries without healthcare, but not in modern countries.
- wolco 7y agoLike Italy/Spain? When the system is overwhelmed death rates rise. The reports from wuhan tell a story of difficult recovery. Young people 2 months recovered can't walk up stairs. 30% reduced lung function. If 60% get it that's a huge amount of people..
- unishark 7y agoThey may be inferior and insufficient, but poor countries do have hospitals too. Let's not overstate that either. Though yes, ultimately decimation seems likely. But also poverty provides something of a barrier to travel, slowing coronavirus down. If it takes long enough to hit them, developed countries will be able to assist a lot more.
- travisoneill1 7y agoInside the Wuhan quarantine zone the mortality was 5.8%. The virus has an R0 of 2.3, so herd immunity will kick in around 60% (2.3 * 0.4 < 1). That would result in an overall population mortality of 3.48%.
- usrusr 7y agoThe initial Wuhan outbreak is completely inadequate for estimating the mortality of an unchecked wave. It was weathered with massive outside help, being surrounded by the most powerful and agile economy in the world and all that. The rest of the planet is hit concurrently, there are no unaffected regions left who could send help. And that local wave was successfully interrupted long before reaching anything close to herd immunity, so peak medical demand was still far below worst case.
- 7y ago
- grey-area 7y agoWhen it overwhelms healthcare it does decimate populations. This is happening in Europe and looks like it will happen in many countries.
- jskrablin 7y agoCheck current Italy numbers and projections and then keep telling yourself about overdramatizing. Then add the effects of ongoing lockdowns and travel bans on economy. Them add the effects (short and long term) of redirecting a lot of health care system's resources to deal with the pandemic. We are only at the beginning of pandemic and it already looks like a complete clusterfk.
- tomohawk 7y agoThis is not a static situation - it is very fluid and dynamic. The 2% rate is only for those with access to sufficient medical attention. People in localities where that is no longer possible are having a much worse outcome. And keep in mind that death is only one possible negative outcome. This disease attacks the cells in the lungs and can permanently damage them. It also attacks the intestines. It will be a while before we will know what the damage is.