5 ms·

Based on symptoms and where the people were geographically. One or two tests can confirm cases for a whole town. They simply (and safely) assume that all flu-l

by Jaxkr 7y ago

Based on symptoms and where the people were geographically. One or two tests can confirm cases for a whole town. They simply (and safely) assume that all flu-like illnesses coming from a certain area are covid.

dakrisht 7y ago
> One or two tests can confirm cases for a whole town. What? >They simply (and safely) assume that all flu-like illnesses coming from a certain area are covid. So Influenza A, B are safely assumed to be SARS-Cov2. Yeah... no.
- dylz 7y ago
  You can rapid-test for flu. If it's an ILI and tests negative for flu, it's probably COVID at this point.
  - dakrisht 7y ago
    Ok sure. Still inaccurate to assume it’s SARS-Cov2. This is not a game of assumptions. Furthermore, Italy tested over 200,000 samples in a little less than 14 days? Don’t think so. Numbers aren’t making sense. At all.
    - erk__ 7y ago
      It very much is. When you are limited in every way you have make some cuts. This is just the cut that says that it is probably covid if it is not flu and they are from an area with test confirmed cases. And in by far most cases it is going to be correct. Probably as correct as the current test for covid.
      - dakrisht 7y ago
        So 200,000+ people under mandatory lockdown went to a clinic (not a drive through test, a physical clinic), lined up and waited to get tested for Influenza which was assumed to be SARS-Cov2? Or maybe Italy tested 200,000+ samples with RT-PCR technology with machines and labs and tests / swabs they don’t have? Not trying at all to spin conspiracy theories here but these numbers simply do not add up. As a corollary: there are a myriad of infections that can present as fever and cough: rhinoviruses, influenza, bronchial infections, gastroenteritis, auto immune flare ups, sinusitis and season allergies, the list goes on. We are all speculating btw.
        ceceron 7y ago
        They can just test for Covid-19 antibodies. It's not really reliable, but it is much faster than the genetic tests and should quickly discriminate between Covid and the common flu. Italians are triaging, so they have to quickly sort the cases. They have to sacrifice precision and allow for some false positives.
        dylz 7y ago
        This is very much a game of assumptions and a game of cutting corners at this point. It's wartime. The hospitals near me are literally using pieces of cotton, cut shirts, hand-sewn layers, instead of regulation-required certified N95 masks.
- acqq 7y ago
  If the average number of cases in some small area (e.g. a block or blocks of buildings, a part of town, a town) is e.g. two patients with symptoms X per MONTH, and the symptoms include FEVER and not being able to breath, i.e. something people can't just make up and can be easily measured, and THEN you get a patient from a block of buildings with symptoms X and THEN you test him and get a positive result and THEN you get ten more people from there with symptoms X, AND in the same small are some people have the same symptoms and are in such a bad condition that they need to be connected to the MACHINES and some DIE, you can be very sure it's a virus which never existed among the humans before generating these symptoms. Otherwise, it would have to be some OTHER virus not known to humanity appearing at the same time, behaving unlike the viruses we know and watch every year, magically appearing exactly in the community where you verified the existence of the one for which you test.
ramblerman 7y ago
Wow really. Do you have a source for that? Because if true, combine that with the facts that - 87% of deaths occur at home and not in ICU [1] - median age of deaths is 80 years old [2] Are all deaths just being counted as Covid-19 (without test then)? I think it would be really interesting to compare baseline deaths in February/March from previous years to this one. [1] https://www.tgcom24.mediaset.it/cronaca/coronavirus-in-lombardia-9-morti-su-10-mai-giunti-in-terapia-intensiva_16362350-202002a.shtml https://www.tgcom24.mediaset.it/cronaca/coronavirus-in-lomba... [2] https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_17_marzo-v2.pdf https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-C...
- dakrisht 7y ago
  This is another valid point and disturbing point. Italians are most likely counting most if not all deaths as SARS-Cov2 deaths. 1) A large amount of the elderly are going to hospitals because of pre-existing conditions that might be flaring up or presenting as they normally do. They enter the clinic > get complications > get marked down as dying from SARS-Cov2. And/or they acquire hospital acquired pneumonia (HAP). 2) I’ve read the ISS report cover to cover and yes, nearly ALL deaths are due to 1) age greater than 70, 2) 75% showing 2 (two) or more per-existing conditions with a staggering 99% showing 1 (one) or more pre-existing conditions. Let’s not forget the above comment (HAP or other hospital acquired infections from SARS-Cov2, Influenza, whatever). 3) Seeing a death count YOY would be beneficial here indeed. I don’t think ANYBODY will be able to answer my initial question here. There is NO WAY in hell the Italians have tested over 200,000 patients for SARS-Cov2 in a matter of 2-3 weeks due to: 1) such capacity simply does not exist 2) Italians have been under quarantine and when they weren’t they were drinking coffee and not lining up for tests. 3) the time of test > result trajectory > reported data is impossible 4) such high throughout testing capacity simply does not exist Where are these magic numbers coming from? :)
  - liqu0rice 7y ago
    > 1) such capacity simply does not exist Germany is able to conduct more than 160,000 tests per week. I do not know the numbers for Italy, but why shouldn't they be able to reach that number over 2-3 weeks?

by Jaxkr 7y ago

dakrisht 7y ago

> One or two tests can confirm cases for a whole town. What? >They simply (and safely) assume that all flu-like illnesses coming from a certain area are covid. So Influenza A, B are safely assumed to be SARS-Cov2. Yeah... no.

dylz 7y ago
You can rapid-test for flu. If it's an ILI and tests negative for flu, it's probably COVID at this point.
- dakrisht 7y ago
  Ok sure. Still inaccurate to assume it’s SARS-Cov2. This is not a game of assumptions. Furthermore, Italy tested over 200,000 samples in a little less than 14 days? Don’t think so. Numbers aren’t making sense. At all.
  - erk__ 7y ago
    It very much is. When you are limited in every way you have make some cuts. This is just the cut that says that it is probably covid if it is not flu and they are from an area with test confirmed cases. And in by far most cases it is going to be correct. Probably as correct as the current test for covid.
    - dakrisht 7y ago
      So 200,000+ people under mandatory lockdown went to a clinic (not a drive through test, a physical clinic), lined up and waited to get tested for Influenza which was assumed to be SARS-Cov2? Or maybe Italy tested 200,000+ samples with RT-PCR technology with machines and labs and tests / swabs they don’t have? Not trying at all to spin conspiracy theories here but these numbers simply do not add up. As a corollary: there are a myriad of infections that can present as fever and cough: rhinoviruses, influenza, bronchial infections, gastroenteritis, auto immune flare ups, sinusitis and season allergies, the list goes on. We are all speculating btw.
      - ceceron 7y ago
        They can just test for Covid-19 antibodies. It's not really reliable, but it is much faster than the genetic tests and should quickly discriminate between Covid and the common flu. Italians are triaging, so they have to quickly sort the cases. They have to sacrifice precision and allow for some false positives.
      - dylz 7y ago
        This is very much a game of assumptions and a game of cutting corners at this point. It's wartime. The hospitals near me are literally using pieces of cotton, cut shirts, hand-sewn layers, instead of regulation-required certified N95 masks.
acqq 7y ago
If the average number of cases in some small area (e.g. a block or blocks of buildings, a part of town, a town) is e.g. two patients with symptoms X per MONTH, and the symptoms include FEVER and not being able to breath, i.e. something people can't just make up and can be easily measured, and THEN you get a patient from a block of buildings with symptoms X and THEN you test him and get a positive result and THEN you get ten more people from there with symptoms X, AND in the same small are some people have the same symptoms and are in such a bad condition that they need to be connected to the MACHINES and some DIE, you can be very sure it's a virus which never existed among the humans before generating these symptoms. Otherwise, it would have to be some OTHER virus not known to humanity appearing at the same time, behaving unlike the viruses we know and watch every year, magically appearing exactly in the community where you verified the existence of the one for which you test.

ramblerman 7y ago

Wow really. Do you have a source for that? Because if true, combine that with the facts that - 87% of deaths occur at home and not in ICU [1] - median age of deaths is 80 years old [2] Are all deaths just being counted as Covid-19 (without test then)? I think it would be really interesting to compare baseline deaths in February/March from previous years to this one. [1] https://www.tgcom24.mediaset.it/cronaca/coronavirus-in-lombardia-9-morti-su-10-mai-giunti-in-terapia-intensiva_16362350-202002a.shtml https://www.tgcom24.mediaset.it/cronaca/coronavirus-in-lomba... [2] https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-COVID-2019_17_marzo-v2.pdf https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Report-C...

dakrisht 7y ago
This is another valid point and disturbing point. Italians are most likely counting most if not all deaths as SARS-Cov2 deaths. 1) A large amount of the elderly are going to hospitals because of pre-existing conditions that might be flaring up or presenting as they normally do. They enter the clinic > get complications > get marked down as dying from SARS-Cov2. And/or they acquire hospital acquired pneumonia (HAP). 2) I’ve read the ISS report cover to cover and yes, nearly ALL deaths are due to 1) age greater than 70, 2) 75% showing 2 (two) or more per-existing conditions with a staggering 99% showing 1 (one) or more pre-existing conditions. Let’s not forget the above comment (HAP or other hospital acquired infections from SARS-Cov2, Influenza, whatever). 3) Seeing a death count YOY would be beneficial here indeed. I don’t think ANYBODY will be able to answer my initial question here. There is NO WAY in hell the Italians have tested over 200,000 patients for SARS-Cov2 in a matter of 2-3 weeks due to: 1) such capacity simply does not exist 2) Italians have been under quarantine and when they weren’t they were drinking coffee and not lining up for tests. 3) the time of test > result trajectory > reported data is impossible 4) such high throughout testing capacity simply does not exist Where are these magic numbers coming from? :)
- liqu0rice 7y ago
  > 1) such capacity simply does not exist Germany is able to conduct more than 160,000 tests per week. I do not know the numbers for Italy, but why shouldn't they be able to reach that number over 2-3 weeks?