4 ms·

Testing and tracing are core parts of both SK's and Singapore's strategies who had cases in their countries and seem to have beaten it. I don't think we'll ever

Testing and tracing are core parts of both SK's and Singapore's strategies who had cases in their countries and seem to have beaten it. I don't think we'll ever be able to proof with 100% certainty that their strategies worked because and it wasn't good luck or some other unknown factor, however it seems highly likely given the same strategy is working out well on two different places. South Korean foreign minister believes it's testing that was key: https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-51897979/coronavirus-south-korea-seeing-a-stabilising-trend https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-51897979/coronavirus-... Singapore was hit hard by SARS. They adjusted their strategy and are successful with COVID-19. paper: https://academic.oup.com/jtm/advance-article/doi/10.1093/jtm/taaa039/5804843 https://academic.oup.com/jtm/advance-article/doi/10.1093/jtm... Maybe they were just lucky, but if it was my decision, I'd put my money on the strategy that worked in those two countries and minimized cost in lives and economic impact.

mehrdadn 7y ago
Thanks for the links! To be clear, I'm not suggesting they had good luck or anything like that. I'm not even saying testing would be unhelpful (obviously it'd be helpful at least in some cases). I'm trying to figure out if there's more to the story, and if the effect testing itself is really as big as people imagine. Note that in the video she says testing is important because it minimizes further spread and quickly treats those found with the virus. But, for example, I'm hearing many Americans aren't exactly heeding the shelter-at-home orders. Would testing change that? And is there no other way to already change that without testing? Or for example, I'm hearing the US is running low on masks (not sure about other supplies) which I presume would harm patients' treatment. Would testing change that in any way? And like I mentioned elsewhere, the US can't legally just collect GPS data on everyone, and if we tried to put known cases on a map for everyone to look at, I'm not sure how well it would fly here. So are these going to be bigger obstacles to tracing even if we test people? Is testing really our biggest obstacle here?
- ejstronge 7y ago
  I find these “devil’s advocate” perspectives a bit trying at times - yes testing would lead people to stay at home (since we could simply post a cop outside), yes testing would reduce PPE use (we would reduce transmission before a new case ever could walk in the ER door). You don’t need GPS data to do contact tracing. Really, there’s no excuse for the abysmal US testing regime. We’re beyond a point where contact tracing is feasible, but there is no reason we had to get to this point.

mehrdadn 7y ago

Thanks for the links! To be clear, I'm not suggesting they had good luck or anything like that. I'm not even saying testing would be unhelpful (obviously it'd be helpful at least in some cases). I'm trying to figure out if there's more to the story, and if the effect testing itself is really as big as people imagine. Note that in the video she says testing is important because it minimizes further spread and quickly treats those found with the virus. But, for example, I'm hearing many Americans aren't exactly heeding the shelter-at-home orders. Would testing change that? And is there no other way to already change that without testing? Or for example, I'm hearing the US is running low on masks (not sure about other supplies) which I presume would harm patients' treatment. Would testing change that in any way? And like I mentioned elsewhere, the US can't legally just collect GPS data on everyone, and if we tried to put known cases on a map for everyone to look at, I'm not sure how well it would fly here. So are these going to be bigger obstacles to tracing even if we test people? Is testing really our biggest obstacle here?

ejstronge 7y ago
I find these “devil’s advocate” perspectives a bit trying at times - yes testing would lead people to stay at home (since we could simply post a cop outside), yes testing would reduce PPE use (we would reduce transmission before a new case ever could walk in the ER door). You don’t need GPS data to do contact tracing. Really, there’s no excuse for the abysmal US testing regime. We’re beyond a point where contact tracing is feasible, but there is no reason we had to get to this point.