4 ms·

At a 4.3% death rate if the same number were infected you would be looking at 2 million in the US.

by wolco 7y ago

claytongulick 7y ago
4.3% is just simply wrong, even by absolute worst case measures. Please don't spread this number. Even in Wuhan, they revised the official number down to 1.4%, and every serious epidemiologist is saying it's likely much lower, because of undocumented cases. (Current models have it at 86% unreported).
- Engineering-MD 7y ago
  Which model has it at 86% unreported? I just haven’t seen this particular study.
  - K0SM0S 7y ago
    https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221 https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/scie... > We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%–90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions. I think that's what GP was talking about.
    - Engineering-MD 7y ago
      Thank you, I hadn’t seen a study quote it that high previously.
- shalmanese 7y ago
  It's by far not the worst case number. To get the worst case number, we need to know these variables: % of your population that eventually gets infected * % of all cases requiring hospitalization * % who get no medical attention * Death Rate for people who get no medical attention OR ~0.5 - 1%, whichever is higher. We can start putting error bars around these figures: Best estimates from China/SK & Diamond Princess all indicate that ~20 - 30% of cases at most are asymptomatic and if ~20% of all symptomatic cases require hospitalization, that means the lower limit is ~15% of all cases require hospitalization. If you go with the "herd immunity" approach of 70% of people eventually getting it, then ~10% of all people require hospitalization which is 10 - 1000x overwhelming of the hospital system, no matter how much you "flatten the curve" so 90+% of people will just flat out receive no medical intervention. The only other key number left in the equation is what % of hospitalized cases, if given no attention, will eventually die and the data from Italy seems pretty grim. Italy in a few days, will already have more deaths than ICU beds which means the untreated death rate might be as high as 50% vs 5% for treated. Multiply all of these numbers together and it's not hard to see how 4.3% might end up being a conservative estimate of the death rate. It also becomes obvious that the ONLY variable that matters in this equation is the % of people eventually infected. If you can keep it below 1% forever, you're in a reality far different from if it goes above 30%.

At a 4.3% death rate if the same number were infected you would be looking at 2 million in the US.

by wolco 7y ago

At a 4.3% death rate if the same number were infected you would be looking at 2 million in the US.

4.3% is just simply wrong, even by absolute worst case measures. Please don't spread this number. Even in Wuhan, they revised the official number down to 1.4%, and every serious epidemiologist is saying it's likely much lower, because of undocumented cases. (Current models have it at 86% unreported).

Engineering-MD 7y ago
Which model has it at 86% unreported? I just haven’t seen this particular study.
- K0SM0S 7y ago
  https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/science.abb3221 https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/03/13/scie... > We estimate 86% of all infections were undocumented (95% CI: [82%–90%]) prior to 23 January 2020 travel restrictions. I think that's what GP was talking about.
  - Engineering-MD 7y ago
    Thank you, I hadn’t seen a study quote it that high previously.
shalmanese 7y ago
It's by far not the worst case number. To get the worst case number, we need to know these variables: % of your population that eventually gets infected * % of all cases requiring hospitalization * % who get no medical attention * Death Rate for people who get no medical attention OR ~0.5 - 1%, whichever is higher. We can start putting error bars around these figures: Best estimates from China/SK & Diamond Princess all indicate that ~20 - 30% of cases at most are asymptomatic and if ~20% of all symptomatic cases require hospitalization, that means the lower limit is ~15% of all cases require hospitalization. If you go with the "herd immunity" approach of 70% of people eventually getting it, then ~10% of all people require hospitalization which is 10 - 1000x overwhelming of the hospital system, no matter how much you "flatten the curve" so 90+% of people will just flat out receive no medical intervention. The only other key number left in the equation is what % of hospitalized cases, if given no attention, will eventually die and the data from Italy seems pretty grim. Italy in a few days, will already have more deaths than ICU beds which means the untreated death rate might be as high as 50% vs 5% for treated. Multiply all of these numbers together and it's not hard to see how 4.3% might end up being a conservative estimate of the death rate. It also becomes obvious that the ONLY variable that matters in this equation is the % of people eventually infected. If you can keep it below 1% forever, you're in a reality far different from if it goes above 30%.