4 ms·

Maybe instead of looking for excuses we should look at what they have done that can be applied to the US and Europe.

by yibg 7y ago

mehrdadn 7y ago
That's literally what I'm asking. What else did they do besides testing? My understanding is they've been aggressively quarantining people and tracing their contacts via phone GPS tracking, credit card data, and video surveillance [1], which is what really matters. Whereas in the US, they're telling people that testing them wouldn't change the health provider's response, which would be that the patient should self-quarantine if able. Now I don't like this fact, but I don't see why they would be lying about it. And if we assume they're not lying, then testing really would seem pointless. The problem here (as far as I can tell) seems to not be the presence or lack of testing, but the inability and/or unwillingness to provide the same kind of response in the US as in South Korea. [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-south-korea-spread-daily-case-count-decreases-over-time-2020-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-south-korea-spre...
- ajmurmann 7y ago
  I think the problem is bigger. We can't do now what SK is doing. They are tracing cases and aggressively quarantining everyone who tests positive. Obviously you cannot do that if you cannot test enough people to get a complete enough picture of the invected population. We also probably now have too many infected to make that strategy workable at this point, even if we had the tests, tracing probably would be the new bottleneck. This great write-up suggests to shut everything down to get cases back to a manageable level and then move to the SK and Singaporean model: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56 https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-th... Strongly recommend the read.
  - mehrdadn 7y ago
    I don't really think we disagree on the overall picture to be honest. I realize they're probably doing something (or I should say multiple things) right, and I realize the US has had organizational failures and such. I'm just not clear on what exactly having testing capability would let the US do that it otherwise cannot do right now, and I've yet to see a direct answer to this. If healthcare providers are saying that they'd just tell anyone who might have the disease stay home, then how does testing change the picture? Can't they do it already? Or is the idea that people would only obey this if they actually tested positive? And for tracing, can the US even use GPS etc. data the way South Korea can to trace their contacts, and invade people's privacy just like that? Would testing make that noticeably easier, compared to (I don't know, just thinking aloud) making medical providers report those that call about an illness so their contacts can be traced? etc.

Maybe instead of looking for excuses we should look at what they have done that can be applied to the US and Europe.

by yibg 7y ago

Maybe instead of looking for excuses we should look at what they have done that can be applied to the US and Europe.

That's literally what I'm asking. What else did they do besides testing? My understanding is they've been aggressively quarantining people and tracing their contacts via phone GPS tracking, credit card data, and video surveillance [1], which is what really matters. Whereas in the US, they're telling people that testing them wouldn't change the health provider's response, which would be that the patient should self-quarantine if able. Now I don't like this fact, but I don't see why they would be lying about it. And if we assume they're not lying, then testing really would seem pointless. The problem here (as far as I can tell) seems to not be the presence or lack of testing, but the inability and/or unwillingness to provide the same kind of response in the US as in South Korea. [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-south-korea-spread-daily-case-count-decreases-over-time-2020-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-south-korea-spre...

ajmurmann 7y ago
I think the problem is bigger. We can't do now what SK is doing. They are tracing cases and aggressively quarantining everyone who tests positive. Obviously you cannot do that if you cannot test enough people to get a complete enough picture of the invected population. We also probably now have too many infected to make that strategy workable at this point, even if we had the tests, tracing probably would be the new bottleneck. This great write-up suggests to shut everything down to get cases back to a manageable level and then move to the SK and Singaporean model: https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56 https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-th... Strongly recommend the read.
- mehrdadn 7y ago
  I don't really think we disagree on the overall picture to be honest. I realize they're probably doing something (or I should say multiple things) right, and I realize the US has had organizational failures and such. I'm just not clear on what exactly having testing capability would let the US do that it otherwise cannot do right now, and I've yet to see a direct answer to this. If healthcare providers are saying that they'd just tell anyone who might have the disease stay home, then how does testing change the picture? Can't they do it already? Or is the idea that people would only obey this if they actually tested positive? And for tracing, can the US even use GPS etc. data the way South Korea can to trace their contacts, and invade people's privacy just like that? Would testing make that noticeably easier, compared to (I don't know, just thinking aloud) making medical providers report those that call about an illness so their contacts can be traced? etc.