4 ms·

There was actually a poll on Friday that showed 55% of respondents approved of his handling of the crisis.

salawat 7y ago
Keep in mind that all of the data in polls comes from the type of people who respond to random polling with something other than hanging up. I'll admit, I may suffer from the mother of all sampling biases but in the social circles I frequent this is not at all a common trait.
- dmix 7y ago
  Yet these same polls keep accurately predicting primary results on a similar small scale. What we need is more of them and wider samples to reduce the ~95% error rate of the ABC results even lower. Not critiquing ones who have a well established reputation for following good methodology, as if polling never has value (FiveThirtyEight has litigated this to death and have largely won the argument). That said, one poll is rarely ever enough.
  - WrtCdEvrydy 7y ago
    Of course, the people who do polls go and fucking vote.
ridewinter 7y ago
There was also a poll this week that showed only 37% trust what he says. https://www.npr.org/2020/03/17/816680033/poll-americans-dont-trust-what-they-re-hearing-from-trump-on-coronavirus https://www.npr.org/2020/03/17/816680033/poll-americans-dont...
- dehrmann 7y ago
  I don't know the name of it, but there's a tick psychological tests do where they reverse questions, hoping to see if people are answering honestly. There was a window where most people approved of the ACA and disapproved of Obamacare.
dehrmann 7y ago
Source: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/20/poll-majority-of-americans-now-approve-of-trumps-coronavirus-management-138570 https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/20/poll-majority-of-am... This is ~13% (absolute) more than his approval rating, so a big chunk of people think his is handling this well. That said, the GOP thinks this will impact his chance of reelection. Steve Bannon said "he's not running against Joe Biden, he’s running against a virus and the collateral damage from that." So far, the states in lockdown mode where deaths and job losses are likely were going to vote Biden anyway. If more rural states start having problems, expect a lot of swing states to swing left.

Keep in mind that all of the data in polls comes from the type of people who respond to random polling with something other than hanging up. I'll admit, I may suffer from the mother of all sampling biases but in the social circles I frequent this is not at all a common trait.

dmix 7y ago
Yet these same polls keep accurately predicting primary results on a similar small scale. What we need is more of them and wider samples to reduce the ~95% error rate of the ABC results even lower. Not critiquing ones who have a well established reputation for following good methodology, as if polling never has value (FiveThirtyEight has litigated this to death and have largely won the argument). That said, one poll is rarely ever enough.
- WrtCdEvrydy 7y ago
  Of course, the people who do polls go and fucking vote.

ridewinter 7y ago

There was also a poll this week that showed only 37% trust what he says. https://www.npr.org/2020/03/17/816680033/poll-americans-dont-trust-what-they-re-hearing-from-trump-on-coronavirus https://www.npr.org/2020/03/17/816680033/poll-americans-dont...

dehrmann 7y ago
I don't know the name of it, but there's a tick psychological tests do where they reverse questions, hoping to see if people are answering honestly. There was a window where most people approved of the ACA and disapproved of Obamacare.

dehrmann 7y ago

Source: https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/20/poll-majority-of-americans-now-approve-of-trumps-coronavirus-management-138570 https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/20/poll-majority-of-am... This is ~13% (absolute) more than his approval rating, so a big chunk of people think his is handling this well. That said, the GOP thinks this will impact his chance of reelection. Steve Bannon said "he's not running against Joe Biden, he’s running against a virus and the collateral damage from that." So far, the states in lockdown mode where deaths and job losses are likely were going to vote Biden anyway. If more rural states start having problems, expect a lot of swing states to swing left.