9 ms·

So how long should it take to be able to create a reliable, sensitive and specific test , and then produce millions of such tests, for a virus which didn't exis

So how long should it take to be able to create a reliable, sensitive and specific test , and then produce millions of such tests, for a virus which didn't exist in humans until 3-4 months ago?

epistasis 7y ago
A week? Two weeks tops? Once we have the viral genome sequence, which we've had for a looooong time, it's really easy to make a test. Testing a new virus is not the difficulty! We've had all the info we needed for months, and the bottlenecks are not anything specific to SARS-COV-2. IDT, TWIST, and others can produce the specifics for this virus in no time. What we are seeing is a massive logistical and organizational failure, driven right from the top of all of the organizations.
jclulow 7y ago
I dunno, how long did it take in South Korea?
- calmworm 7y ago
  Exactly. It’s already done. Why there isn’t more or even any public outcry regarding the US/FDA refusing to use their testing kits/system is beyond me.
  - drak0n1c 7y ago
    For those reading who may be reminded of a recent news story - There was never any refusal of purportedly offered test kits. The WHO confirmed that there was never such an offer or even availability and that the rumor was false. https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/16/joe-biden/biden-falsely-says-trump-administration-rejected-w/ https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/16/joe-biden/...
    - ejstronge 7y ago
      I’m not sure when the WHO reported that it did not have kits to offer, though they did state that many countries develop their own kits. It still makes sense to ask why FDA only allowed CDC to develop a test, vs allowing all extant, validated tests and/or allowing private US tests.
    - calmworm 7y ago
      This is not the same story or question. This is a derailing statement and should be removed.
- mehrdadn 7y ago
  How were their false negatives? (Edit: typo: just noticed I accidentally wrote false positives instead of false negatives.)
  - ajmurmann 7y ago
    Seems not to matter much given that they were able to get their cases under control
    - mehrdadn 7y ago
      How have they established this has been due to testing rather than something else?
      - yibg 7y ago
        Maybe instead of looking for excuses we should look at what they have done that can be applied to the US and Europe.
        mehrdadn 7y ago
        That's literally what I'm asking. What else did they do besides testing? My understanding is they've been aggressively quarantining people and tracing their contacts via phone GPS tracking, credit card data, and video surveillance [1], which is what really matters. Whereas in the US, they're telling people that testing them wouldn't change the health provider's response, which would be that the patient should self-quarantine if able. Now I don't like this fact, but I don't see why they would be lying about it. And if we assume they're not lying, then testing really would seem pointless. The problem here (as far as I can tell) seems to not be the presence or lack of testing, but the inability and/or unwillingness to provide the same kind of response in the US as in South Korea. [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-south-korea-spread-daily-case-count-decreases-over-time-2020-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-south-korea-spre...
        7y ago
- neuronexmachina 7y ago
  Looks like they were on the ball and started developing their tests way back in January, when the virus's gene was first sequenced. I haven't been able to find a detailed timeline of their test production, though: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/south-korea-coronavirus-lessons-quick-easy-tests-monitoring-200319011438619.html https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/south-korea-coronavir...
- nprz 7y ago
  South Korea and the US found their first covid positive case on the same day[0]. I can't understand how the richest nation in the world failed this hard at containing and controlling covid. [0]https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-testing-specialrep/special-report-how-korea-trounced-u-s-in-race-to-test-people-for-coronavirus-idUSKBN2153BW https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-testin...
  - chrisco255 7y ago
    If you look at South Korea's population, they have 1/7th the pop of the United States but yet have 1/3rd the number of deaths. They are doing almost twice as bad as the U.S. in terms of deaths per million people.
    - raphlinus 7y ago
      There are so many ways to slice the raw data, each giving a different sound of how alarming it is. For example, if you look at just Washington state, it has roughly the same number of deaths of South Korea, with one seventh the population.
- pnw_hazor 7y ago
  SK reformed their pandemic response in 2015. They were ready long before Covid-19 showed up. https://www.propublica.org/article/how-south-korea-scaled-coronavirus-testing-while-the-us-fell-dangerously-behind https://www.propublica.org/article/how-south-korea-scaled-co...
mtmail 7y ago
One Germany company managed in January https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-12/a-berlin-biotech-company-got-a-head-start-on-coronavirus-tests https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-12/a-berlin-...
IggleSniggle 7y ago
I'm not so sure the tests are really the issue here. Were talking about breathing equipment for sick folks (anesthesiologists have proposed repurposing some of the equipment to aid in the shortage). We're talking about personal protective equipment, and the time/energy of the healthcare providers. At least in the case of simply having enough general use equipment for a pandemic, it's something that can be prepared for well in advance.

So how long should it take to be able to create a reliable, sensitive and specific test , and then produce millions of such tests, for a virus which didn't exist in humans until 3-4 months ago?

epistasis 7y ago

A week? Two weeks tops? Once we have the viral genome sequence, which we've had for a looooong time, it's really easy to make a test. Testing a new virus is not the difficulty! We've had all the info we needed for months, and the bottlenecks are not anything specific to SARS-COV-2. IDT, TWIST, and others can produce the specifics for this virus in no time. What we are seeing is a massive logistical and organizational failure, driven right from the top of all of the organizations.

jclulow 7y ago

I dunno, how long did it take in South Korea?

calmworm 7y ago
Exactly. It’s already done. Why there isn’t more or even any public outcry regarding the US/FDA refusing to use their testing kits/system is beyond me.
- drak0n1c 7y ago
  For those reading who may be reminded of a recent news story - There was never any refusal of purportedly offered test kits. The WHO confirmed that there was never such an offer or even availability and that the rumor was false. https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/16/joe-biden/biden-falsely-says-trump-administration-rejected-w/ https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/16/joe-biden/...
  - ejstronge 7y ago
    I’m not sure when the WHO reported that it did not have kits to offer, though they did state that many countries develop their own kits. It still makes sense to ask why FDA only allowed CDC to develop a test, vs allowing all extant, validated tests and/or allowing private US tests.
  - calmworm 7y ago
    This is not the same story or question. This is a derailing statement and should be removed.
mehrdadn 7y ago
How were their false negatives? (Edit: typo: just noticed I accidentally wrote false positives instead of false negatives.)
- ajmurmann 7y ago
  Seems not to matter much given that they were able to get their cases under control
  - mehrdadn 7y ago
    How have they established this has been due to testing rather than something else?
    - yibg 7y ago
      Maybe instead of looking for excuses we should look at what they have done that can be applied to the US and Europe.
      - mehrdadn 7y ago
        That's literally what I'm asking. What else did they do besides testing? My understanding is they've been aggressively quarantining people and tracing their contacts via phone GPS tracking, credit card data, and video surveillance [1], which is what really matters. Whereas in the US, they're telling people that testing them wouldn't change the health provider's response, which would be that the patient should self-quarantine if able. Now I don't like this fact, but I don't see why they would be lying about it. And if we assume they're not lying, then testing really would seem pointless. The problem here (as far as I can tell) seems to not be the presence or lack of testing, but the inability and/or unwillingness to provide the same kind of response in the US as in South Korea. [1] https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-south-korea-spread-daily-case-count-decreases-over-time-2020-3 https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-south-korea-spre...
        7y ago
neuronexmachina 7y ago
Looks like they were on the ball and started developing their tests way back in January, when the virus's gene was first sequenced. I haven't been able to find a detailed timeline of their test production, though: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/south-korea-coronavirus-lessons-quick-easy-tests-monitoring-200319011438619.html https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/03/south-korea-coronavir...
nprz 7y ago
South Korea and the US found their first covid positive case on the same day[0]. I can't understand how the richest nation in the world failed this hard at containing and controlling covid. [0]https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-testing-specialrep/special-report-how-korea-trounced-u-s-in-race-to-test-people-for-coronavirus-idUSKBN2153BW https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-testin...
- chrisco255 7y ago
  If you look at South Korea's population, they have 1/7th the pop of the United States but yet have 1/3rd the number of deaths. They are doing almost twice as bad as the U.S. in terms of deaths per million people.
  - raphlinus 7y ago
    There are so many ways to slice the raw data, each giving a different sound of how alarming it is. For example, if you look at just Washington state, it has roughly the same number of deaths of South Korea, with one seventh the population.
pnw_hazor 7y ago
SK reformed their pandemic response in 2015. They were ready long before Covid-19 showed up. https://www.propublica.org/article/how-south-korea-scaled-coronavirus-testing-while-the-us-fell-dangerously-behind https://www.propublica.org/article/how-south-korea-scaled-co...

mtmail 7y ago

One Germany company managed in January https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-12/a-berlin-biotech-company-got-a-head-start-on-coronavirus-tests https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-12/a-berlin-...

IggleSniggle 7y ago

I'm not so sure the tests are really the issue here. Were talking about breathing equipment for sick folks (anesthesiologists have proposed repurposing some of the equipment to aid in the shortage). We're talking about personal protective equipment, and the time/energy of the healthcare providers. At least in the case of simply having enough general use equipment for a pandemic, it's something that can be prepared for well in advance.